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| White has just captured on f3 in Charlie B Nettleton (190) - Spanton (170), Fareham 2020. How big is White's advantage? |
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White is winning, according to the analysis engines Stockfish12 and Komodo11.01, but this is almost certainly wrong.
39...Kf8 40.Ke4 Ke7 41.Kd5 Bb7+ 42.Kc5 Kd7 43.Kb6 Kc8 44.b5 axb5 45.Kxb5!?
Or, for example, 45.axb5 Bf3 46.Ka7!? Bb7 47.b6 g6 48.Bd2 Bf3 (the bishop cannot stay on b7 for ever, but it does not have to) 49.Ka6 Bb7+ 50.Kb5 Bf3 51.Kc5 Kb7 52.Be3 Bg4 53.Kd6 h5 54.Ke7 Be6, and White cannot make progress, although Komodo11.01 reckons White is winning.
45...Bf3 46.Bb6 Kb7?!
46...Kd7 draws, eg 47.a5 (47.Ba5 Kc8) Be2+ 48.Kc5 Ba6.
The text may also draw, but is not clear.
47.a5 Be2+ 48.Kc5 Bg4?!
Black seems to hold after 48...Kc8, eg 49.Kd6 Ba6 50.Ke7 Bc4 51.Kf8 g6 52.Kg7 h5 53.Kf8 Kd7, when both engines reckon White is winning, but again progress does not seem possible.
49.Kd6 h5
It seems to be too late for 49...Kc8, eg 50.a6 h5 51.Ke7 Be6 52.a7 Bd5 53.Ba5 g6 54.Bb6, when Black is in zugzwang as 54...Kb7 loses to 55.a8=Q+.
50.Ke7 Be6 51.Kd8 1-0
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