Thoughts On Bad Wörishofen

THE 41st Bad Wörishofen chess festival was split into three sections: open (103 participants), U2000 (73) and seniors (153).

A problem with the large field that the seniors had is that the first round tends to consist of a series of mismatches.

My Fide elo of 1919 meant I was seeded 72nd, just above the cut-off point for the top half.

Depending on byes and absences, I could have found myself facing an international master in round one. But instead I was drawn against the 150th seed, who was rated 1577.

In a tournament with juniors, that could have proved a poisoned chalice, but was not the case here, and my opponent forfeited on time while thinking about his 21st move.

That might seem strange, but it is probably significant that Stockfish17.1 and Dragon1 reckon he was positionally lost after six moves.

In one way the most remarkable thing about the game was that I had the white pieces, having had black in my previous seven encounters.

The seven comprised of the last two rounds at Weimar, followed by club games in the London, Central London and Croydon & District leagues, and two county games.

Off the top of your head, without pausing to calculate, what would you guess are the odds of getting seven blacks in a row?

Image: wikiHow

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Clearly, the chances of having black in the first round are one in two, and the chances in the second round are also one in two, so the chances of having black in two consecutive rounds are one-in-two x one-in-two, ie one in four.

[Actually, the odds in a tournament of getting two blacks in a row are longer than this as pairing rules usually dictate alternating colours.]

The five games following Weimar were all one-off events, in that previous colours had no bearing on future colours.

Seven rounds of one-in-two add up to one-in-128, or, in bookmakers' terms, 127-1 against.

The real odds were higher in my case as having black in round six at Weimar reduced my chances of having black in round seven, so perhaps the true odds of my getting seven blacks in a row were more like 150-1 or even 200-1 (someone more mathematically inclined might be able to give a more precise figure).

I have a barmaid-friend who regularly bets 50p each-way - sometimes £1 each-way - on horses she fancies because of their name or because they are grey.

Maria recently had a 250-1 winner, so I should not feel too put-upon at getting the short end of  a 127-1 chance.

Nevertheless, I am fairly sure it is a personal record.