Tuesday 8 October 2019

What Are The Odds Of This Happening?

A CURIOSITY from the weekend's 23rd 4NCL congress.
In round two of the U2000/175 section I was paired against Rob Tokeley of Burnley, who has an ECF grade of 152 and a Fide rating of 1840.
The remarkable thing about this - and I really think "remarkable" is not too strong a word - is that a grade of 152 converts exactly to a Fide elo of 1840.
The current conversion formula, which was introduced by the ECF in February 2014, is:
ECF grade x 7.5 (+700) = Fide elo
So 152 x 7.5 (+700) = 1840.
Usually when a grade and a rating match in this way it is because a tournament organiser has converted a grade for an English player who does not have a rating (and sometimes a conversion is made from a rating to a grade for a foreigner who is not registered with the ECF).
But in the case of RT, his grade and rating are separate entities.
I cannot recall having ever played anyone before whose ECF and Fide exactly matched (but it may well have happened without me noticing).
My ECF of 168, for example, converts to 1960, although my actual Fide is 1927.
That is a reasonably close match - many players, especially juniors, have much greater discrepancies.
The main reason for these discrepancies is undoubtedly that most people who are registered with the ECF play many more graded games than rated ones.
The situation is changing.
The vast majority of league chess that comes under ECF auspices continues to be graded and not rated. That used to be also the case with tournaments, particularly weekend swisses.
However, increasing numbers of congresses are submitting results to Fide, and not only of open sections. Adam Raoof's near-monthly Hampstead congresses, for example, now feature three sections, each of which is sent for grading and rating.
My experience of playing this year, while by no means typical of most players, is illuminating.

MONTH...EVENT...…………….NUMBER OF GAMES...ECF GRADED...FIDE RATED
January.......Hastings...………………………..6...………………..Yes...…………….Yes
January.......Leagues...………………………...5...………………..Yes...…………….No
January.......Mariánské Lázně…………………9...………………..No...……………..Yes
February.....Leagues...………………………..11...……………….Yes...…………….No
February.....Hampstead...……………………...5...………………..Yes...…………….Yes
March.....…Leagues...………………………....4.............................Yes........................No
March.........Hampstead......................................5..............................Yes.......................Yes
March.........Bad Wörishofen..............................9..............................No........................Yes
April...........Leagues...........................................2..............................Yes.......................No
April...........Jersey..............................................7..............................Yes.......................Yes
April...........Southend.........................................7..............................Yes.......................Yes
April...........Hampstead......................................5..............................Yes.......................Yes
May............Leagues...........................................6..............................Yes.......................No
May............Bad Wiessee...................................9...............................No........................Yes
May............Gloucester.......................................6..............................Yes.......................No
May............Newmarket.....................................5...............................Yes......................Yes
June............Leagues...........................................6..............................Yes.......................No
June............Hampstead......................................5...............................Yes......................Yes
June............Bristol.............................................5...............................Yes......................Yes
July.............Leagues..........................................3...............................Yes......................No
July.............Bridgend.........................................9...............................Yes......................Yes
July.............Telford............................................5...............................Yes......................Yes
July.............British.............................................7...............................Yes......................Yes
August........Olomouc.........................................9...............................No........................Yes
August........Newcastle.......................................9...............................Yes.......................Yes
August........Livermead.......................................9...............................Yes.......................Yes
September...Leagues..........................................3...............................Yes........................No
September...Bradford.........................................5...............................Yes........................No
September...Crewe.............................................5...............................Yes.......................Yes
October.......League............................................1...............................Yes........................No
October.......South Normanton...........................5...............................Yes........................Yes
"Leagues" includes internal club games and the Pimlico summer tournament organised on a one-game-a-week basis

If I have got the numbers right (I found the table to be quite a tricky construct, as can be seen!) I have played 187 games in 2019.
Of those, 151 are/will be graded and 135 rated, so both my ECF grade and my Fide rating can be regarded as fairly accurate, which is no doubt why they are in rough alignment.
Returning to the weekend's 4NCL congress, here is the list of prizewinners:

Placing
Open
Points
Prize £
 
1st
Merriman John
£500.00
 
2nd
Burrows Martin P
4
£250.00
 
3rd=
Arkell Keith C
£25.00
 
 
Hebden Mark L
£25.00
 
 
Willow Jonah B
£25.00
 
 
Stepanyan Henrik
£25.00
 
 
Verma Aditya
£25.00
 
 
Turner Max N
£25.00
 
 
Makkar Rajat
£25.00
 
 
Gardiner Eric D
£25.00
 
Performance
Tom Leah
3
£50.00
 
 
 
  
Placing
Major
Points
Prize £
1st=
Spanton Tim R 
4
£375.00
 
Taylor Robert P 
4
£375.00
3rd=
Davies Peter L 
£28.57
 
Brown Geoffrey M 
£28.57
 
Garnett John S 
£28.57
 
Bryant Richard Be 
£28.57
 
Tokeley Rob 
£28.57
 
Dean Robert A 
£28.57
 
Clegg Robert 
£28.57
Performance
Davies Sam 
£50.00
 
 
  
Placing
Minor
Points
Prize £
1st=
Salisbury Paul 
4
£375.00
 
Adamski Tomasz D 
4
£375.00
3rd=
Dhillon Tas 
£33.33
 
Fisher Neal 
£33.33
 
Walker Kate 
£33.33
 
Bridgeman Matthew R 
£33.33
 
Fraser Chris A 
£33.33
 
Morris Nigel W 
£33.33
Grading Prize
Hilditch-Love Daniel 
£50.00

The performance that stands out is that of John Merriman (2201/214) winning the Open ahead of a field that included two GMs, one IM and three FMs.
Incidentally, the Sam Davies who won the U2000/175 performance prize had a fairly useful coach in attendance - his father, grandmaster Nigel Davies.
The prize money in each section totalled £1,000, so £3,000 in all.
The number of entries was 125, according to the 4NCL website, although only 121 players actually took part.
Multiply the number of entries by the entry fee of £30 (ignoring pay-to-play fees that presumably go completely to the ECF) and you get £3,750.
In other words, 80% of the entry fees were returned in prize money.
The playing hall - all games were played in a single room at a Holiday Inn in Derbyshire - was spacious, if rather overheated.
It seems to me the 4NCL has found a winning formula for weekend tournaments as well as its better-known league chess.

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