Beat The ... Baltic Defence

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Baltic Defence: 1.d4 d5 2.c4 Bf5!? is one of those openings that tends to be forgotten for years until a new book or magazine article thrusts it back into the limelight.

White's most-popular response is 3.Nc3, which scores 55%, but 3.cxd5 scores a much-more impressive 66%.

Position after 3.cxd5

Black nearly always continues by exchanging on b1, but two other moves are occasionally played.

A) 3...Bxb1 (1,292 games)

After 4.Qa4+ the line splits.

A1 4...c6 5.dxc6!? Nxc6 6.Rxb1, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 6...e5!? 7.Bd2 (7.dxe5?? Bb4+), when A1.1a 7...Qxd4 8.Qxd4 exd4 9.g3 scores 80% for White and A1.1b 7...exd4 8.g3 Qd5 9.Nf3 scores 71% for White.

A1.2 6...Qxd4 7.Qxd4 Nxd4 8.e3 Nc6 9.Nf3 scores 76% for White.

A2 4...Qd7 5.Qxd7+ Nxd7 6.Rxb1 Ngf6 7.Bd2!? Ndb6 8.f3!? scores 70% for White.

B) 3...Qxd5?! (44 games)

After 4.Nc3 the line splits.

B1 4...Qd8 5.e4 Bg6 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 6.Nf3, 6.Be3 and other moves, albeit from small samples.

B2 4...Qa5 5.Bd2 c6 6.e4 Bg6 7.Nf3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C) 3...Nf6!? (41 games)

After 4.Qa4+!? the line splits.

C1 4...Qd7 5.Qxd7+ Nbxd7 6.Nc3 Nb6 7.f3 scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C2 4...c6 5.dxc6 Nxc6 6.e3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.