Beat The ... French Tarrasch

IN this occasional series I look at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

Many French Defence players find White's most-annoying line to be the Tarrasch Variation: 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nd2.

Of those responses that appear more than 1,000 times in Mega21, the most successful, scoring 50%, is 3...h6!?, which is a favourite of Nigel Short's and has also been played by Magnus Carlsen.

Position after 3...h6!?

White has three popular replies.

A) 4.Ngf3 (551 games)

After 4...Nf6 the line splits.

A1 5.e5 Nfd7, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 6.Bd3 c5 7.c3 Nc6 8.0-0 g5!?, when A1.1a 9.dxc5 Bxc5 10.Nb3 Bb6 11.Re1 g4 12.Nfd4 Ncxe5 scores 56% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 9.h3 h5 10.g4 hxg4 11.hxg4 Qb6 scores 60% for Black.

A1.2 6.c4!? dxc4 (6...Be7 scores equally well, but the capture is preferred by the analysis engine Stockfish13), when A1.2a 7.Nc4 Nb6 8.Nxb6 axb6 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2b 7.Bxc4 Nb6 8.Bb3 Nc6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

A2 5.Bd3 c5, after which the line splits again.

A2.1 6.exd5 Nxd5!? 7.0-0 Nc6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2.2 6.c3 cxd4 7.cxd4 dxe4 8.Nxe4 Nxe4 9.Bxe4 Bb4+ 10.Bd2 Bxd2+ 11.Qxd2 Nd7!? scores 71% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2.3 6.e5 Nfd7 is a transposition to A1.1.

A2.4 6.dxc5 dxe4 7.Nxe4 Nxe4 8.Bxe4 Qxd1+ 9.Kxd1 Bxc5 10.Ke2 Nd7 scores 58% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B) 4.Bd3 (238 games)

After 4...c5 (4...Nf6 scores equally well, but the pawn thrust is preferred by Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) the line splits.

B1 5.dxc5 Bxc5 6.Ngf3 Nc6 7.0-0 Nge7 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B2 5.c3 Nc6, after which the line splits again.

B2.1 6.Ngf3 Nf6 7.0-0 cxd4 8.cxd4 dxe4 9.Nxe4 Be7 scores 59% for Black.

B2.2  6.Ne2 cxd4 7.cxd4 dxe4 8.Nxe4 Bb4+ scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B3 5.exd5 exd5, after which the line splits again.

B3.1 6.Ngf3 c4 7.Be2 Nc6 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B3.2 6.Qe2+ Be7!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B3.3 6.dxc5 Bxc5 7.Nb3 Be7 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

C) 4.c3 (188 games)

After 4...c5 the line splits.

C1 5.exd5 exd5 (5...Qxd5 scores equally well, but the engines prefer the pawn recapture), after which the line splits again.

C1.1 6.Ngf3 Nf6 7.Bb5+ Bd7, when C1.1a 8.Qe2+ Be7 9.dxc5 0-0 10.Nb3 Re8 11.Be3 Qc7 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C1.1b 8.Bxd7+ Nbxd7 9.0-0 Be7 10.dxc5 Nxc5 11.Nb3 Nce4!? scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

C1.2 6.Bb5+ Nc6 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C2 5.Ngf3 Nf6, after which the line splits again.

C2.1 6.exd5 exd5 is a transposition to C1.1.

C2.2 6.e5 Nfd7 7.Bd3 is a transposition to A1.1.

C2.3 6.Bd3 is a transposition to A2.2.