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Material is level and both sides have doubled and isolated queenside pawns, one of which is under immediate threat. White has the only passed pawn, but Black has potential to create a passer on a flank.
Quite often in endgames, such a flank passer appears on the queenside, when it is well-known that its power to divert an enemy king can make it decisive. But that can easily also be the case with a passer on the kingside.
The position in the diagram is completely equal, according to Stockfish17.1 and Dragon1, although their first reaction on being shown it is to slightly favour Black.
I suggest this means that, although theoretically equal, the position is easier for Black to play.
But what would be the verdict if the bishops were removed?
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The position is still completely equal, according to the engines, but it is worth watching them play it out to see why this is the case.
Best play goes something like:*
32.Kf3 Kf7 33.Kf4 Kf6 34.e5+ Ke7 35.b4!? (this freezes Black's queenside pawns, and creates a reserve tempo in the shape of b2-b3) h6 36.h4 g5!? 37.hxg5 hxg5+ 38.Kxg5 Kxe5 39.Kg6 Kd4 40.Kf6 Kc4 41.Ke7 Kxc4 42.Kd7 c5 43.Kxc7 c4 44.Kc6 Kb3 45.Kc5 ½–½
*For most moves there are two or more continuations of equal value, and I have preferred what I reckon to be the most natural, or perhaps most human.
Going back to the first diagram, it might be thought White can draw with 32.Bc3?
After 32...Bxc3 33.bxc3 White's pawn-structure has been improved, but the game is lost.
| If it were White to move, the game would be drawn, more-or-less as shown above, but the sequence 32.Bc3 Bxc3 33.bxc3 costs White a tempo, and that it is all it takes to turn a draw into a loss |
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A likely continuation is 33...g5!? (33...Kf7 also wins) 34.Kf3 h5 35.b4 Kf7 36.e5!? Ke6 37.Ke4.
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37...c5!
After 37...g4 38.hxg4 hxg4 39.Kf4 g3 40.Kxg3 Kxe5 41.Kf3 Kd5 42.Ke3 Kc4 the white king is in time to protect c3 with 43.Kd2, and so the game is drawn.
38.bxc5
After 38.b5 c4 39.Kd4 Black creates a winning kingside passer with 39...g4.
38...c6 39.c4 h4! 40.Kd4 g4 etc.
Again going back to the first diagram, the game continuation was 32.Kf3!? Kf7 (32...Bxb2 33.Bf4) 33.Kg4 Ke6 34.Bf4!? Bxf4 35.Kxf4, resulting in a draw.
The engines reckon White has another draw with 32.Bc1!?
I rejected it for fear of getting into zugzwang, but a sample continuation shows my fear was ungrounded, eg 32...Kf7 33.Kf3 Ke6 34.Bf4, when 34...Bxf4 35.Kxf4 reaches the same drawn position as in the game.
LESSON: 'simple' endings can be just as deep, in their own way, as a middlegame slugfest.
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