ECF v Fide

MY 'worst ever tournament', and the discussion it prompted, both at Beau Chess, and last week while talking to other players during the English championships at Peterborough, led to further discussion about my over-the-board elo ratings, both national (ECF) and international (Fide).

My ratings have varied quite a lot since they became directly comparable in January 2021, which was when the English Chess Federation introduced four-digit ratings, replacing three-digit grades.

I have created the following graph, showing how my ratings have stood at each quarter, ie in January, April, July and October of the years 2021-6, using a handy tool at the US's National Center for Education Statistics.

Note that a large part of the rise in my Fide rating in early 2024 was due to a recalibration by Fide, designed to correct perceived deflation in the elos of players rated U2000

I am not sure what the graph proves, if anything, but it may be significant that my ECF rating, although fluctuating, has not moved about as much as my Fide rating.

But even that impression is misleading, as the recalibration in early-2024 is responsible for a large chunk of the Fide rating fluctuation.

Take out the recalibration, and the green line does not vary significantly more than the red line, at least to my eyes.

The ECF's rating manager made an interesting observation yesterday at the English Chess Forum: "While there is great variation, a rule of thumb is that those over 60 on average lose 0.5 of an ECF rating point per game played."

I am 69, and I play roughly 70 ECF-rated games a year, which means my ECF rating should, on average, be falling 35 elo a year.

My annual total of Fide-rated games is roughly twice that number, so I guess my Fide rating should be falling some 70 elo a year.

[Note that there is some overlap, eg games at the British and English championships are rated for both the ECF and Fide.]

Fortunately, this decline does not seem to have happened, yet ...