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My opponent replied 48...Rxg5?, which, as I commented in my post, "makes White's task easier."
The evaluations of my main engines jump from around +3.00 for White to more than +5.00 (Stockfish18) or almost +9.00 (Dragon1).
But it occurred to me afterwards that it would be instructive to see how White wins after a more sensible move, such as 48...Ke7, assuming the engines are right, and there is a way for White to break through.
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Material is level, but White's advantage is based on the fact that Black's 4-3 queenside majority is blockaded, while White's 4-3 kingside majority still has some flexibility.
The moves that follow are the engines' consensus on how to best play the position. Where they disagree, and it is not obvious which is correct, I will choose what seems to me the more-human continuation.
49.Rf1!? Rg7 50,g4 hxg4 51.Rxg4 Rh5 52.Kf3 Rh6 53.Rc1 Kd7 54.Rh1 Rh5 55.Rg5 Ke8!? 56.Kg4 Rh8 57.h5 Rgg8 58.h6 Kf7.
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59.Kf3 Rh7 60.Rg2 Rgh8 61.Rc2!? Rxh6 (61...Rc8?! 62.Kg4) 62.Rxh6 Rxh6 63.Rxc6 Rh3+ 64.Kg4 Rb3 65.Rxa6 Rxb4 66.Ra7+ Ke8 67.a6 Kd8 68.Kg5 Rxd4
| Black is a pawn up, but White's more-active king and advanced passer add up to an advantage worth well more than a rook, according to the engines |
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69.Rh7 Ra4 70.a7 Kc8 71.Kxg6 Ra6 72.f5!? exf5+ 73.Kxf5 b4 74.Rh8+ Kc7!? (74...Kb7 75.e6) 75.a8=Q Rxa8 76.Rxa8, and even the most-stubborn Black can resign.
LESSON: engines can make endgame technique seem simple, but watching such technique is instructive.
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