Sunday 8 April 2018

Win, Lose or Draw?

IT is Black to move in this position from round four at Jersey. With best play, should Black win, lose or draw?
White has just played 43.Nh5-g7+ in Spanton (1851) - Sheila Jackson (2108)
The game saw:
43...Kg6 44.Ne6
Forced.
44...Kxf7
Forced.
45.Nxg5+
Forced.
45...Kg6
45...Kf6 46.Ne4+ Ke6 47.Nxd6 Kxd6 48.Ke3 is a drawn pawn ending.
46.Ne4 Bf8 47.a4 bxa4 48.Nd2
... and the game was drawn.

 43...Kf6?? loses trivially to 44.Ne8+.

43...Ke4?? also loses to 44.Ne8, eg 44...Be7 45.Nf6+ Kf5 46.Nd7 etc.
But 44.Ne6? seems to only draw after 44...g4 eg 45.f8Q Bxf8 46.Nxf8 g3 47.Ne6 g2 48.Ng5+ Kf4 49.Nf3 Ke4 50.Nd2+ Kf4 51.Kf2 a4 52.Kxg2 Ke3 53.Nf1+ (other moves lose) Kd3 54.Kf2 Kc2 55.Ke2 Kxb2 56.Kd2 Kxa3 57.Kc2 b4 58.Nd2 Ka2 (if 58...b3+ then 59.Kb1 b2 60.Nxc4+ Kb3 61.Nxb2 a3 62.Nd1 a2+ 63.Ka1=) 59.Nxc4 b3+ 60.Kc1 a3 61.Nd2 b2+ 62.Kc2 Ka1 63.Nb3+ Ka2 64.Nd2 c4 65.Nb1 Ka1 66.Nxa3 Ka2 67.Nb1 Ka1.

Black seems to be winning after my analysis engines' suggestion of 43...Ke5!
The main line runs 44.Kf3 Bf8 45.Nh5 Be7 46.Kg4 Ke6 47.Ng3 Kxf7.
Or 44.Ne8 Be7 45.Kf3 b4 46.Kg4 Ke6 47.Nc7+ Kxf7 48.Nd5 bxc3 49.bxc3 Bd8 50.Kf5 Kg7 51.Ne3 Kh6 52.Nxc4 Kh5 53.Ne5 Bc7 54.Nd7 c4 55.a4 Kh4 56.Nf6 Bd6 57.Ng4 Bf4 58.Nf6 Bc1 59.Ng4 Bf4 60.Nf6 Bd2 61.Ne4 Bc1 62.Nf2 Bb2.

So the answer to the question seems to be: Black should win (with the caveat that one of the winning lines is rather long, so there may be mistakes in analysis).

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