Fundamentals (part 16)

J Clifford (108) - Spanton (147)
Barbican (London) rapidplay 1991

White has just captured on c5 - who stands better?

*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
Black, thanks to having the more-centralised king and the better pawn-structure, is winning, according to Stockfish10, or at least has the upper hand (Komodo10).
30...Ke5
But it seems that necessary to prove Black's advantage is 30...d4! The point is that after 31.cxd4 Ke6 32.Ke3 Kd5 Black has more reserve tempi with his pawns and so d4 will eventually fall, which means c5 will also fall. So the engines suggest 31.c4!? when they much prefer Black but never manage to make progress, at least in the lines I looked at with them.
31.Ke3
Better is 31.Kf3! but can you see why?
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
31...g6
Winning is 31...d4+ 32.cxd4+ (if 32.Kd2 then 32...Kd5!) Kd5 and again Black's extra reserve-tempi mean the d4 and c5 pawns will eventually fall. Note that after 31.Kf3! White can meet 31...d4 with the drawing 32.c4.
After I played the text White offered a draw for the third time in the game.
32.g3?
Drawing is 32.Kf3! and, probably, 32.d4+ and 32.Kf2!?
32...g5
32...d4+! wins.
33.h3?
The engines reckon 33.Kf3! and 33.d4+ draw.
33...h5
Once again ...d4+! wins.
34.d4+
The engines slightly prefer 34.Kf3! but it seems the text also draws.
34...Kf5
The engines reckon Black's best shot is 34...Ke6!? Their main line runs 35.Kd3 Kd7!? 36.h4! (an only-move, apparently, eg 36.Ke3 runs into 36...Kc6, and if 37.Kd3 then 37...Kb5 seems to win, one variation running 38.h4 gxh4 39.gxh4 a5 40.Kc2 Kc4 41.Kd2 b5 42.cxb6 cxb6 43.Kc2 b5 44.Kd2 b4 45.cxb4 axb4 46.Ke3 Kc3 etc) gxh4 37.gxh4 Ke6 38.c4 a6!? 39.cxd5+ Kxd5 40.a3 a5 41.a4 c6 42.Kc3 Ke4 43.Kc4 and White holds, but there are plenty of alternatives along the way.
35.Kf3?!
It may be White had to play 35.Kd3.
35...a5
The engines give 35...Ke6!, which reaches the same position as in the previous note but with the white king one further square away from the queenside. Their main line continues 36.Ke3 Kd7 and now 37.h4 does not work as after 37...gxh4 38.gxh4 Black has 38...Ke6!, eg 39.Kf4 Kf6 40.a3 a6 41.a4 a5 42.Ke3 Kf5 43.Kf3 c6 and the white king has to give way.
36.g4+ hxg4+ 37.hxg4+ Ke6 38.Ke3 Kd7 39.Kd3 Kc6 40.a4 b5 41.cxb6 cxb6??
41...Kxb6 draws easily, eg 42.c4 c6 but presumably I was still trying for a win.
42.c4 Kd6
White offered a draw.
43.Kc3 dxc4??
Other moves also lose, eg 43...Kc6 44.cxd5+ Kxd5 45.Kd3 etc, but the double question-mark is for not taking the draw.
44.Kxc4 Kc6 45.d5+ Kd6 46.Kb5 Kxd5 47.Kxb6 Kc4 48.Kxa5 Kc5 ½–½
My notes do not show, but I think that after I played 48...Kc5 White made his fifth draw-offer of the game, and even I by now could see I had to accept.