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| White has just captured on d4 in Spanton (2039) - T Borland (1715), Guernsey 2001. Who stands better, and by how much (warning: this ending is much trickier than it might seem)? |
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My main analysis engines, Stockfish12 and Komodo11.01, at first rate the position as fairly even (dead-equal, according to the former), but given enough time they much prefer White.
Black's problem is that although he has a protected passed pawn, his f4 pawn is very vulnerable. If it falls, White wins easily, as long as the minor pieces stay on the board, so the centralising 33...Kf8 fails to 34.Kg2.
33...c3!
This is the engines' choice. Defending the c pawn will now be difficult, but pushing it frees the c4 square for the knight, and stops the white king from using the d2 square.
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34.Kf1!
34.Bd3 is equal, according to the engines, but going after the f4 pawn directly with 34.Kg2? loses to 34...Nc4 35.Kf3 Na3 36.Bd3 c2 etc.
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34...f3!
This is Black's best shot, according to the engines. The white king is quite effectively hemmed in.
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35.Ke1!
If 35.Bd3, to cover c4 and free the c2 square, the engines give 35...Nc4!, when 36.Bxc4?? fails to 36...c2. After 36.Ke1 Black has 36...Nb2, after which neither player can make progress, eg 37.Bb1 Kf8 38.e5 Ke7 39.Be4 Ke6, when 40.Bxf3? loses to 40...Nd3+ 41.Kd1 c2+! 42.Kxc2 Ne1+.
35...Nc4 36.Kd1
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36...Kf8
Centralising the king is often the right plan in a minor-piece ending (and many other endings), but here it is too slow. Black had to activate his queenside majority with 36...a5!, after which play is unclear.
Stockfish12 gives 37.bxa5 Nxa5 38.Bd3 b4 39.d5 Nb7 40.Kc2 d5 41.e5 Kf8 42.d6, which it reckons gives White the upper hand (Komodo11.01 has White only slightly better).
Komodo11.01 gives 37.a4!? bxa4 38.bxa5 a3 39.Bb3 Nxa5 40.Kc2 Kf8 41.Kxc3, which it reckons gives White the upper hand (Stockfish12 has White only slightly better).
37.Bd3 Na3
The white king cannot get at the c3 pawn, but, with the knight on a3 rather than b2, White can win the f3 pawn.
38.e5 Ke7 39.Be4 Ke6 40.h4 c2+ 41.Kc1 Nc4 1-0 (Time)
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