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| Black has just captured on g6 in Oliver Gill (2134) - Spanton (1954), Coulsdon (Surrey) Christmas 2018. Who stands better, and by how much? |
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Black has doubled c pawns, no realistic hope of creating a queenside passer and a bishop that has no targets (apart from h3). White has an isolated pawn and difficulties creating a kingside passer. The analysis engines Stockfish12 and Komodo11.01 reckon the position is equal.
42.Ne3 Bd3!?
The engines do not like this, preferring 42...Bh5.
43.Kg3 Be2 44.Kh4
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44...Bf3?!
The engines reckon best is 44...f6, although after 45.exf6 they disagree as to how Black should recapture.
45.Kg5
Stockfish12 at first reckons this gives White a winning advantage, but fairly soon comes closer to Komodo11.01's assessment of a slight edge to White.
45...Be2
Not 45...f6+? 46.exf6 gxf6 47.Kg6 with a winning advantage for White, according to the engines.
46.h4 g6?
This weakens the kingside dark squares.
47.Kh6
The best way to exploit Black's mistake seems to be 47.Ng4, eg 47...Bf3 (47...Bxg4 48.Kxg4 is a winning pawn-ending for White) 48.Nf6 Be2 49.Ne8 Kd7 50.Ng7 Ke7 51.f5 Bd3 52.f6 Kd7 53.e6+ fxe6 54.Kh6 with an overwhelming position. One line give by the engines continues 54...e5 55.Nf5! Bxf5 56.f7 etc.
47...Bf3 48.Kg7 Be2 49.Kf8 Bb5?
Better is 49...Bh5, but White remains on top.
50.Ng4
This is probably good enough but even stronger is the engines' 50.c4, eg 50...Ba6 51.Ke8 followed by Kd8 etc. If 50...Ba4, then 51.Nd5, which is also the answer to to 50...Bc6.
50...Kf5 51.Nh6+ Kxf4 52.Nxf7 Kf5
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53.Kg7?
The correct plan seems to be 53.Ke7 (53.Nh8 may also be winning), supporting the advance of the e pawn.
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53...Be8?
The engines' 53...Be2 seems to draw. If then, as in the game, 54.Nh8, the continuation 54...Kxe5 55.Nxg6+ Kf5 leaves Black able to stop the h pawn.
54.Nh8 Kxe5?
And here it seems the engines' 54...Ba4!? gives drawing chances, eg 55.Nxg6 Bd1, stopping the h pawn. White can try 55.Kf7!? but 55...Bb3+ 56.Ke7 g5 57.hxg5 Kxg5 58.Kd7 Kf5 59.Kxc7 b5 60.Kc6 b4 seems to hold.
55.Nxg6+ Kf5 56.Ne7+ Kg4 57.Nd5 Kxh4 58.Nxc7 Bc6 59.Kf6 Kg4 60.Ke5 Kf3 61.Kd6 Be4 62.Nd5 Ke2 63.Nxb6 Kd3 64.Kxc5 Kc2 65.Na4 Kb3 66.Kb5 Bg6 67.Kxa5 Be8 68.Nb6 Kxb2 69.Kb4 Bh5 70.a4 Be2 71.a5 Kc2 72.c4 Kd3 73.a6 Kc4 74.a7 1-0
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