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| Black has just captured on c3 in Spanton (1977) - Christopher Archer-Lock (2053), Paignton 2012. Who stands better, and by how much? |
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Stockfish12 reckons White has a slight edge, but Komodo11.01 calls the position equal.
39.Kf2
The engines want White to play 39.a4!? I rejected that because I wanted to leave a route for my king to enter Black's position via the queenside.
39...Kf8!?
The engines do not like this retreat, preferring, for example, 39...f6.
40.Ke3 Ke8!?
They still prefer ...f6.
41.Ke4 Kd7 42.Ng5 Bb2?
Better is 42...Ke8, but Black is clearly on the back foot, confirming that Black's king manoeuvre has probably been incorrect.
43.a4?!
Probably better is 43.Nxf7 Bxa3 44.Nh8 Bb4 45.Nxg6, as 45...a5 seems to be comfortably met by 46.Nf4, eg 46...a4 47.Kd3.
43...Ke8 44.e6 f6 45.Nf7?
White still seems to be winning after the engines' 45.Nh3, when the engines reckon best-play goes 45...Be5 46.Kf3 Kf8 47.g4 hxg4+ 48.Kg4, and now something like 48...Kg7 49.h5 gxh5+ 50.Kxh5 Bd4 51.Kg4 Kf8 52.Kf5 with very strong play.
45...f5+
From my original notes I see I missed that this allows Black to cover the h8 square.
46.Kf3 Bc3 47.Ng5 Kf8 48.Nh3 Kg7 49.Nf4
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49...Bd4?
Best, according to the engines, is 49...Be5. The point being that if, as in the game, 50.Nd3, Black can reply 50...Bd6, when the bishop simultaneously defends c5 and pressurises g3.
50.Nd3 Kf6 51.Kf4 a5
Black was in zugzwang, eg 51...Bg1 52.Ne5 Bd4 53.Nd7+ Kg7 54.Nb8 a5 55.Nc6 or 51...Kg7 52.Ne5 Bxe5+ 53.Kxe5 Kf8 54.d6 etc.
52.Kf3 Kg7 53.Nf4?
A mistake that allows Black to transpose into the line pointed out at Black's 49th move. The engines reckon 53.Nc1 is winning - Stockfish12 gives White an advantage of more than +7 while Komodo11.01 reckons almost +5. However, after 53...Bc3 (the only way to be able to defend a5 and c5) the engines go round in circles with lines such as 54.Nb3 Bb4 55.Ke3 Be1 56.Ke2 Bb4 57.Nc1 Bc3 58.Kf3 Bb4 59.Nd3 Kf6 60.Ke3 Ba3 61.Kf3 Bb4 62.Ke3 etc. At some point White has to break this cycle, eg 56.Nxc5!? Bxg3, when 57.Nb3 Bxh4 58.Nxa5 Bg3 59.c5 seems to win.
53...Kf6?
CA-L offered a draw.
54.Nh3?
Correct is 54.Nd3, transposing to the winning position after 52.Kf3.
54...Bc3 55.Ng5 Bb2?
Again Be5 holds, and if, as in the game, 56.Nf7, then 56...Bc7 stops the knight invading the queenside.
56.Nf7 Bc3 57.Nd8 Be1 58.Nc6 Bd2 59.Kf2 f4!?
If 59....Bc3 then 60.Ke2 Bb4 61.Nxb4 cxb4 62.Kd2 wins, eg 62...Ke5 63.Kd3 Kd6 64.Kd4 Kc7 (64...b3 65.c5+) 65.c5 Kd8 66.d6 exd6 67.c6!?, or 63...g5 64.hxg5+ Kxg5 65.d6 etc.
60.gxf4 Bxf4 61.Nxa5 Ke5 62.Nb7 Kd4 63.d6 1-0
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