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| White has just captured on e5 in Andrew C Waters (154) - Spanton (170), Kent League 140 Average 2020. Who stands better, and by how much? |
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Unbalanced pawn-majorities favour a bishop over a knight. In addition Black has an isolated d pawn. True, it is passed, but then so is White's protectable e pawn. The analysis engines Stockfish12 and Komodo12.1.1 give White a slight edge.
24...Nc4 25.f4!?
The engines prefer the less-committal 25.Kd3. My engines at the time of this game, Stockfish10 and Komodo10, preferred 25.e6!?, meeting 25....Kf8 with 26.Bg5!? My more-modern engines reckon the continuation 26...Nxb2 27.Ke3 h6 28.Bf6 gives White compensation for the sacrificed pawn, but no more.
25...Kf7
Stockfish12 strongly prefers 25...Na5!?
26.Kd3 Ke6 27.Kd4 Nb6 28.b3 Nc8 29.Ba3 Nb6
The engines prefer 29...b6!? but reckon White is on top.
30.Bb4 Nd7 31.Bd6 Nb6 32.a4 Nc8 33.Ba3 b6 34.Bb4 a5 35.Ba3?
The engines give White a large advantage after 35.Bd2!?, the point being to target the black queenside pawns fixed on dark squares, eg 35...Ne7 36.Be3 Nc8 (36...Nc6? 37.Kd3 leaves Black unable to defend b6) 37.Kc3 Kd7 38.Bf2 Ke6 39.b4 axb4+ 40.Kxb4 Kd7 41.Kb5 Kc7 42.Ka6 Kc6 43.e6! Kc7 44.Bd4 Kc6 45.Be5 h6 46.Bd4 Kc7 47.Bc3 Kc6 48.Be5 g5 49.fxg5 hxg5 50.Bf6 g4 51.h4 etc. This is a long line, but Black is very restricted throughout and must succumb eventually.
Clearly the queenside pawns are the direct cause of Black's troubles, but the moves 33...b6 and 34...a5 are quite liked by the engines, showing Black has major problems whatever he plays. It seems the diagrammed position is much more favourable for White in the long term than the engines realise.
35...Na7
Black equalises because it is possible to play ...Nc6+, driving away the white king, without dropping the b6 pawn.
36.Bd6
Or 31.Bc1 Nc6+ 32.Kc3 Kd7 33.Be3 Kc7, and if 34.e6!? then 34...Kd6 35.Bxb6 Kxe6 with equality.
36...Nc6+ 37.Kc3 Kd7
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38.g4?
This turns a draw into a loss by allowing Black to create a passed h pawn.
38...fxg4 39.hxg4 h5 40.gxh5 gxh5 41.f5
Also no good is 41.Kd2 h4 42.Ke1 d4 43.Ba3 d3 44.Bc1 h3 45.Kf2 Nd4 etc.
41...h4 42.Bf8
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42...h3?
Turning a win into a draw. The patient 42...Nxe5 and the aggressive 42...d4+ win easily.
43.e6+
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43...Kc7!
Other moves lose, eg 43...Ke8 44.Bd6 Nd8 45.Kd4 etc.
44.Bh6
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44...h2?
Turning a draw into a loss.
The game finished:
45.Bf4+ Kd8 46.Bxh2 Ke7 47.Bg3 Kf6 48.Bh4+ Kxf5 49.e7 Nxe7 50.Bxe7 Ke5 1-0
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