Scheduled are two matches in division one, two in division three and one in division four.
Although division four is played over four boards, the other divisions are five-a-side, which makes winning the toss more important than usual.
But how much more important? Or, to put it another way, should the outcome between two evenly matched teams be 3-2 or 2.5-2.5?
As a ballpark figure, whites on average across large databases score 55%, and blacks score 45%.
So the side winning the toss is expected to score 3 x 55% and 2 x 45%, while the other team is expected to score 2 x 55% and 3 x 45%.
That means the team with white on odd boards is expected to beat equally strong opponents by a score of 2.55-2.45.
In other words, assuming my maths are correct, winning the toss in a five-board match is a lot less important than many of us think.
Your maths is correct. Another way of thinking of it is that 4 boards are even (2-2) so only the 5th is "impacted". Therefore the 55%-45% comes out as 0.55-0.45 on the final board. Agreed on the misplaced importance people throw to it! Conor
ReplyDeleteYes, that's a rather simpler way of working it out!
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