Beat The ... 1...d6 Systems

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible,those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

Meeting 1.e4 with 1...d6 used to mean that a Pirc Defence: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 g6 was likely to arise, but these days other variations are increasingly likely, including the Pirc Pribyl: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 c6 and the Lion: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 e5 (or 3...Nbd7 4.f4 e5 to avoid an exchange of queens).

White has a free hand after ...d6 but the best move statistically is also the traditional continuation, 2.d4, which scores 55%.

Position after 2.d4

Black has five popular responses.

A) 2...Nf6 (146,315 games)

White's commonest continuation is 3.Nc3, which scores 55%, but White's score jumps to 58% with a move played by Kasparov and Carlsen: 3.f3!?

A1 3...g6 4.Be3, after which the line splits.

A1.1 4...Bg7 5.Qd2, when A1.1a 5...0-0 6.Nc3 scores 73% for White and A1.1b 5...c6 6.Ne2 scores 71% for White.

A1.2 4...c6 5.Nc3, when A1.2a 5...b5 6.g4!? scores 57% for White, A1.2b 5...Nbd7 6.g4!? scores 61% for White, A1.2c 5...Bg7 6.g4!? scores 60% for White and A1.2d 5...Qb6 6.b3!? scores 68% for White.

A2 3...e5 4.Ne2!? (4.d5 scores equally well but I have gone for 4.Ne2!? because it is less well-known) Be7 5.Be3 0-0 6.c4 scores 65% for White.

A3 3...Nbd7 4.Nc3 e5 5.Nge2, after which the line splits.

A3.1 5...Be7 6.g4!? scores 88% for White.

A3.2 5...c6 6.g4!? scores 85% for White.

A4 3...c6 4.Bd3!? e5 5.Ne2 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A5 3...d5!? 4.e5, after which the line splits.

A5.1 4...Nfd7 5.c3!? scores 59% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A5.2 4...Ng8 5.Be3, when A5.2a 5...Bf5 6.g4!? scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A5.2b 5...e6 6.Bd3 scores 100% for White, albeit from just two games.

B) 2...g6 (28,743 games)

The modern and aggressive thrust 3.h4!? scores 66%, after which the line splits.

B1 3...Nf6 4.Nc3, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 4...Bg7 5.f3!? c6 6.Be3 scores 89% for White.

B1.2 4...c6 5.f3!? scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B1.3 4...h5 5.Nf3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B2 3...h5 4.Bc4 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B3 3...Bg7 4.h5, after which the line splits again.

B3.1 4...c5 5.d5 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B3.2 4...Nf6 5.h6 Bf8 6.Nc3 scores 88% for White.

B3.3 4...Nc6 5.d5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

C) 2...e5!? (2,926 games)

After 3.Bc4!?, which scores 78%, the line splits.

C1 3...exd4 4.Qxd4 Nc6 5.Qe3 scores 83% for White.

C2 3...Nc6 4.d5 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C3 3...Nf6 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.

C3.1 4...Nxe4 5.dxe5 c6 6.Nbd2 (6.Nc3 scores equally well but the latter is from a much smaller sample size and so is statistically less reliable), when C3.1a 6...Nxd2 7.Qxd2 scores 75%, albeit from a very small sample, and C3.1b 6...Nc5 7.exd6 scores 100%, albeit from a very small sample.

C3.2 4...exd4 5.Ng5!? d5 6.exd5 scores 56% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C3.3 4...Be7? 5.dxe5, when C3.3a 5...Nxe4 6.Qd5 scores 77% for White and C3.3b 3...dxe5 4.Qxd8+ Bxd8 5.Nxe5 scores 82% for White.

C3.4 4...Bg4? 5.dxe5, when C3.4a 5...Bxf3 6.gxf3!? scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C3.4b 5...Nxe4?! 6.Qd5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C4 3...Nd7 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.

C4.1 4...c6 5.c3!?, when C4.1a 5...b5 6.Bb3 Be7 7.a4 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample, C4.1b 5...Be7? 6.Qb3 scores 83% for White and C4.1c 5...Qc7 6.0-0 scores 62% for White, albeit from a small sample size.

C4.2 4...Be7?! 5.dxe5, when C4.2a 5...Nxe5 6.Nxe5 dxe5 7.Qh5 g6 8.Qxe5 scores 85% for White, C4.2b 5...dxe5? (137 examples of this mistake in Mega21) 6.Qd5 scores 94% for White and C4.2c 5...Nb6 6.Bb3 Bg4 7.Nc3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C4.3 4...h6 5.0-0 Ngf6 6.Re1 Be7 7.c3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

D) 2...Nd7 (2,546 games)

Three responses score 61%: 3.Nf3, 3.Nc3 and 3.Bc4!? I have gone with 3.Bc4!? because it is much less well-known and fits in with the lines given in C.

D1 3...e5 is a transposition to C4.

D2 3...e6 4.Nc3 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.

D3 3...Ngf6 4.Nc3 e5 5.Nge2!?, after which the line splits again.

D3.1 5...Be7 6.0-0 scores 68% for White.

D3.2 5...c6 6.0-0 b5 reaches a position that only occurs three times in Mega21. The analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 reckon 7.Bb3 gives White a slight edge.

E) 2...c6 (2,299 games)

After 3.f4, which scores 65%, the line splits.

E1 3...Nf6!? 4.e5 scores 59% for White.

E2 3...g6 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.

E2.1 4...Bg7 5.Bd3, when E2.1a 5...Bg4 6.c3 e5 7.dxe5 dxe5 8.0-0 scores 57% for White, albeit from a small sample, and E2.1b 5...Nf6 6.0-0 0-0 7.h3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.

E2.2 4...d5 is a clear tempo-loss for Black. White is better after Stockfish13's 5.e5 and Komodo12.1.1's 5.Nc3.

E3 3...Qc7 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.

E3.1 4...Bg4 5.h3 Bxf3 6.Qxf3 scores 71% for White.

E3.2 4...Nd7 5.Bc4 scores 82% for White, albeit from a small sample.

Antidote To The Lion

PLAYERS who open 1.e4 or 1.d4 have to be ready to face the fashionable Lion, aka the Black Lion.
It is a system aimed at getting a version of Philidor's Defence without allowing White to play what are regarded as theoretically strong replies.
I came across a decent-looking antidote while going through my free copy of Chess magazine from the Hastings congress (https://beauchess.blogspot.com/2020/01/hastings-bonus.html).
Notes in italics are from the winner's Chess annotations.
Harry Grieve (196) - Dominic Klingher (200)
Delancey UK Schools' Terafinal 2017 Round 5
1.d4 d6 2.e4 Nf6 3.Nc3 Nbd7
A slightly unusual move-order aimed at reaching a Philidor without allowing the early exchange of queens that can occur after 3...d5 4.dxe5 dxe5 [sometimes called the Lion's Yawn].
The opening is a Pirc after 3...g6, and a Pribyl after 3...c6.
4.f4!?
By highlighting the drawback to Black's third move, White gains a strong grip on the centre.
Much more popular in ChessBase's 2020 Mega database is 4.Nf3, but it is probably fair to say the text is regarded as the move Black has most to worry about. For example, IM Jeremy Silman, in reviewing the 2008 book The Black Lion: The Chess Predator’s Choice Against Both 1.e4 And 1.d4, says f4 "must be the critical test."
4...e5 5.Nf3 exd4 6.Qxd4
Pillsbury played 6.Nxd4 in 1902, the earliest known example of this line, but Grieve says the e4 pawn can quickly become weak.
6...c6 7.Be3 d5!?
A thematic pawn sacrifice aimed at reducing Black's slight cramp.
We are very much still in mainline theory.

White has to decide what type of game he wants

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8.e5!?
A solid choice to avoid the complications - White aims to establish a grip on the dark squares.
Naturally Black has to also be prepared for 8.exd5, when the main line runs 8...Bc5 9.Qd3 Qe7 10.Nd4 Nb6 11.dxc6 bxc6, with White scoring very well after 12.0-0-0. However, Black has important alternatives at move 10, viz ...Ng4 and...Nxd5. Grieve's choice has the advantage that your opponent is likely to have spent much more time analysing the pawn grab.
8...Bc5!?
Grieve says this seems slightly inaccurate compared with the more popular 8...Ng4. However, the text has been played by grandmasters and is the choice of Komodo10, although Stockfish10 prefers ...Ng4. After 8...Ng4, Grieve gives 9.Bg1 Bc5 (9...Nh6 is also interesting, targeting the weakened f5 square) 10.Qd2 Bxg1 11.Rxg1 Qb6 12.Na4 Qe3+ 13.Qxe3 Nxe3, as played as long ago as 1991, and repeated several times since. But White seems to be doing well after 14.Bd3.
9.Qd2 Ng4?!
This may be the real problem with Klingher's play. The main line runs 9...Bxe3 10.Qxe3 Ng4, although White looks better coordinated after 11.Qd2.
10.Bxc5 Nxc5 11.h3 Nh6 12.g4
White gets a lot of space on the kingside, and the black knight on h6 is badly misplaced.
The engines prefer queenside expansion with 12.b4.
12...b5?
Grieve suggests 12...0-0, but the engines prefer White - Stockfish10 even reckons White is winning - after 13.f5. The engines suggest Black should prevent this with 12...f5, although they reckon White is better after 13.exf6 or 13.g5.
13.b4 Nd7
The engines agree with Grieve's suggestion of 13...Na4, but have White winning after 14.Nxa4 or 14.f5.
14.a4 bxa4 15.b5!?
Simple moves such as 15.Nd4 and 15.Nxa4 are also strong.
15...Bb7
White is also much better after the engines' 15...cxb5 16.Bxb5.
16.bxc6 Bxc6 17.Nd4 Qh4+ 18.Qf2 Qxf2+ 19.Kxf2 Rc8
White has clearly won the opening battle, with the more active and better coordinated pieces as well as the superior pawn-structure.

How does White best realise his advantage?

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20.Ncb5!?
Clearly the best move. With Nd6 and Nxa7 threatened, Black's next move is almost forced, but will still leave him with serious problems to resolve.
Note that 20.Nxc6?! Rxc6 21.Nxd5 Rxc2+ gives Black play he does not really deserve. However, the prosaic 20.Nxa4 also leaves White in command.
20...Bxb5 21.Bxb5 Rc7 22.Rxa4
White has got his pawn back  and dominates on the queenside.
22...Ke7
As Grieve points out, 22...0-0 loses a piece to 23.Bxd7 Rxd7 24.g5.
23.Nc6+ Kf8 24.Rxa7
Now White is a pawn up, and Black is effectively playing without two pieces stranded on the h file (1-0, 42 moves).
One game may prove little, but 4.f4!? seems to set Black difficult problems without exposing White to undue risk.