IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible,those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
Meeting 1.e4 with 1...d6 used to mean that a Pirc Defence: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 g6 was likely to arise, but these days other variations are increasingly likely, including the Pirc Pribyl: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 c6 and the Lion: 1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 e5 (or 3...Nbd7 4.f4 e5 to avoid an exchange of queens).
White has a free hand after ...d6 but the best move statistically is also the traditional continuation, 2.d4, which scores 55%.
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| Position after 2.d4 |
A) 2...Nf6 (146,315 games)
White's commonest continuation is 3.Nc3, which scores 55%, but White's score jumps to 58% with a move played by Kasparov and Carlsen: 3.f3!?
A1 3...g6 4.Be3, after which the line splits.
A1.1 4...Bg7 5.Qd2, when A1.1a 5...0-0 6.Nc3 scores 73% for White and A1.1b 5...c6 6.Ne2 scores 71% for White.
A1.2 4...c6 5.Nc3, when A1.2a 5...b5 6.g4!? scores 57% for White, A1.2b 5...Nbd7 6.g4!? scores 61% for White, A1.2c 5...Bg7 6.g4!? scores 60% for White and A1.2d 5...Qb6 6.b3!? scores 68% for White.
A2 3...e5 4.Ne2!? (4.d5 scores equally well but I have gone for 4.Ne2!? because it is less well-known) Be7 5.Be3 0-0 6.c4 scores 65% for White.
A3 3...Nbd7 4.Nc3 e5 5.Nge2, after which the line splits.
A3.1 5...Be7 6.g4!? scores 88% for White.
A3.2 5...c6 6.g4!? scores 85% for White.
A4 3...c6 4.Bd3!? e5 5.Ne2 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5 3...d5!? 4.e5, after which the line splits.
A5.1 4...Nfd7 5.c3!? scores 59% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5.2 4...Ng8 5.Be3, when A5.2a 5...Bf5 6.g4!? scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A5.2b 5...e6 6.Bd3 scores 100% for White, albeit from just two games.
B) 2...g6 (28,743 games)
The modern and aggressive thrust 3.h4!? scores 66%, after which the line splits.
B1 3...Nf6 4.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 4...Bg7 5.f3!? c6 6.Be3 scores 89% for White.
B1.2 4...c6 5.f3!? scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B1.3 4...h5 5.Nf3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2 3...h5 4.Bc4 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B3 3...Bg7 4.h5, after which the line splits again.
B3.1 4...c5 5.d5 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B3.2 4...Nf6 5.h6 Bf8 6.Nc3 scores 88% for White.
B3.3 4...Nc6 5.d5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
C) 2...e5!? (2,926 games)
After 3.Bc4!?, which scores 78%, the line splits.
C1 3...exd4 4.Qxd4 Nc6 5.Qe3 scores 83% for White.
C2 3...Nc6 4.d5 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C3 3...Nf6 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
C3.1 4...Nxe4 5.dxe5 c6 6.Nbd2 (6.Nc3 scores equally well but the latter is from a much smaller sample size and so is statistically less reliable), when C3.1a 6...Nxd2 7.Qxd2 scores 75%, albeit from a very small sample, and C3.1b 6...Nc5 7.exd6 scores 100%, albeit from a very small sample.
C3.2 4...exd4 5.Ng5!? d5 6.exd5 scores 56% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C3.3 4...Be7? 5.dxe5, when C3.3a 5...Nxe4 6.Qd5 scores 77% for White and C3.3b 3...dxe5 4.Qxd8+ Bxd8 5.Nxe5 scores 82% for White.
C3.4 4...Bg4? 5.dxe5, when C3.4a 5...Bxf3 6.gxf3!? scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C3.4b 5...Nxe4?! 6.Qd5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C4 3...Nd7 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
C4.1 4...c6 5.c3!?, when C4.1a 5...b5 6.Bb3 Be7 7.a4 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample, C4.1b 5...Be7? 6.Qb3 scores 83% for White and C4.1c 5...Qc7 6.0-0 scores 62% for White, albeit from a small sample size.
C4.2 4...Be7?! 5.dxe5, when C4.2a 5...Nxe5 6.Nxe5 dxe5 7.Qh5 g6 8.Qxe5 scores 85% for White, C4.2b 5...dxe5? (137 examples of this mistake in Mega21) 6.Qd5 scores 94% for White and C4.2c 5...Nb6 6.Bb3 Bg4 7.Nc3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C4.3 4...h6 5.0-0 Ngf6 6.Re1 Be7 7.c3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
D) 2...Nd7 (2,546 games)
Three responses score 61%: 3.Nf3, 3.Nc3 and 3.Bc4!? I have gone with 3.Bc4!? because it is much less well-known and fits in with the lines given in C.
D1 3...e5 is a transposition to C4.
D2 3...e6 4.Nc3 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D3 3...Ngf6 4.Nc3 e5 5.Nge2!?, after which the line splits again.
D3.1 5...Be7 6.0-0 scores 68% for White.
D3.2 5...c6 6.0-0 b5 reaches a position that only occurs three times in Mega21. The analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 reckon 7.Bb3 gives White a slight edge.
E) 2...c6 (2,299 games)
After 3.f4, which scores 65%, the line splits.
E1 3...Nf6!? 4.e5 scores 59% for White.
E2 3...g6 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
E2.1 4...Bg7 5.Bd3, when E2.1a 5...Bg4 6.c3 e5 7.dxe5 dxe5 8.0-0 scores 57% for White, albeit from a small sample, and E2.1b 5...Nf6 6.0-0 0-0 7.h3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
E2.2 4...d5 is a clear tempo-loss for Black. White is better after Stockfish13's 5.e5 and Komodo12.1.1's 5.Nc3.
E3 3...Qc7 4.Nf3, after which the line splits again.
E3.1 4...Bg4 5.h3 Bxf3 6.Qxf3 scores 71% for White.
E3.2 4...Nd7 5.Bc4 scores 82% for White, albeit from a small sample.
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