IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The King's Indian Defence starts 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7, at which point White scores a decent 56% with the most-popular move 4.e4.
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| Position after 4.e4 |
A) 4...d6 (166,091 games)
After 5.h3 (this modern-looking move, which raises White's score to an excellent 60%, dates back to at least 1855) the line splits.
A1 5...0-0 6.Bg5, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6...c5 7.d5 when A1.1a 7...e6 8.Bd3 exd5 9.cxd5 Re8 10.Nf3 c4 11.Bc2 b5 12.0-0!? scores 83% for White, albeit from a very small sample, A1.1b 7...b5!? 8.cxb5 a6 9.a4 Qa5 10.Bd2 scores 75% for White, A1.1c 7...h6 8.Be3 e6 9.Qd2!? exd5 10.exd5 scores 81% for White, A1.1d 7...a6 8.a4 e6 9.Bd3 exd5 10.cxd5 scores 71% for White, and A1.1e 7...Qa5 8.Bd2 e6 9.Bd3 exd5 10.cxd5!? scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5...Nbd7 6.Bg5!?, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6...e5 7.d5, when A2.1a 7...h6 8.Be3 Nc5 9.Qc2 a5 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with both 10.0-0-0 and 10.Be2, albeit from very small samples, and A2.1b 7...a5 8.Bd3 Nc5 9.Bc2 scores 54% for White.
A2.2 6...h6 7.Be3 e5 8.d5 is a transposition to A2.1a.
A2.3 6...0-0 7.Bd3, when A2.3a 7...e5 8.d5 Nc5 9.Bc2 a5 10.Nge2 scores 76% for White and A2.3b 7...c5 8.d5 Ne5 9.Be2 scores 76% for White.
A3 5...c5 6.d5 0-0 7.Bd3, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 7...e6 8.Bg5!? is a transposition to A1.1a.
A3.2 7...Na6 8.Nf3 Nc7 9.Bg5, when A3.2a 9...a6 10.a4 Rb8 11.a5 scores 94% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A3.2b 9...h6 10.Be3 scores 64% for White.
A3.3 7...a6 8.a4, when A3.3a 8...e6 9.Nf3 exd5 10.cxd5 Nbd7 11.0-0 (this and 11.Bf4 score equally well, but castling is much preferred by Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) Re8 12.Bf4 (this and 12.Re1 score equally well, but the bishop move is much preferred by the analysis engines) Qc7 13.Qd2 scores 71% for White and A3.3b 8...e5 9.Bg5 h6 10.Be3 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4 5...c6 6.Bg5!?, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 6...Qa5 7.Qd2 scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4.2 6...0-0 7.Bd3 e5 8.d5 Na6 9.Nge2, when A4.2a 9...cxd5 10.Nxd5 scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A4.2b 9...Nc5 10.Bc2 a5 11.0-0 h6 12.Be3 cxd5 13.exd5!? scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5 5...e5 6.d5, after which the line splits again.
A5.1 6...0-0 7.Bd3 when A5.1a 7...a5 8.Nge2 Na6 9.g4!? scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample, A5.1b 7...Nbd7 8.Be3 Nc5 9.Bc2 a5 10.Nge2 scores 72% for White and A5.1c 7...Na6 8.Nge2 Nc5 9.Bc2 a5 10.g4!? scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5.2 6...a5 7.Bd3 Na6 8.Nge2 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A5.3 6...Nbd7 7.Be3, when A5.3a 7...Nc5 8.Qc2 a5 9.Nf3 scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A5.3b 7...0-0 8.Nf3 Nc5 9.Nd2!? a5 10.Be2 Ne8 11.g4!? f5 12.gxf5 gxf5 13.Rg1!? scores 64% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B) 4...0-0 (15,462 games)
After 5.Bg5!? the line splits.
B1 5...d6 6.h3!? is a transposition to A1.
B2 5...c5 6.d5 , after which the line splits again.
B2.1 6...d6 7.h3!? is a transposition to A1.1
B2.2 6...h6 7.Be3 d6 8.h3!? is a transposition to A1.1c.
B3 5...h6 6.Be3 d6 7.h3!? (7.f3 scores equally well, but it seems sensible to choose the repertoire-consistent move) e5 8.d5, after which the line splits again.
B3.1 8...a5 9.Qd2 Kh7 10.Bd3 Na6 11.Nge2 Nc5 12.Bc2 scores 72% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B3.2 8...Na6 9.Bd3, when B3.2a 9...Nc5 10.Bc2 a5 11.Nge2 scores 82% for White and B3.2b 9...Nh5!? 10.g3 scores 68% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B3.3 8...Nbd7 9.Nf3 Nc5 10.Nd2!? a5 11.Be2 Bd7 12.b3!? scores 71% for White.
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