IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Veresov is important at club level and can arise from two main move-orders: 1.d4 d5 2.Nc3 Nf6 3.Bg5 and 1.d4 Nf6 2.Nc3 d5 3.Bg5.
Black's most-popular response is 3...Nbd7, which scores a very good 54%, but this is eclipsed by the 58% of 3...c5!?
Position after 3...c5!? |
A) 5.Bxf6 (582 games)
After 4...gxf6 the line splits.
A1 5.e3 Nc6, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6.Qh5 cxd4!? 7.exd4 e6, when A1.1a 8.0-0-0 Bd7 9.f4 (9.Nge2 f5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample) f5 scores 86% for Black, albeit from a small sample, while A1.2b 8.Nf3 Qb6 scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6.dxc5 e6 7.Qh5 Bxc5 8.0-0-0 f5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.3 6.Nf3 e6 7.Be2 f5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5.e4!? dxe4, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6.dxc5 f5 7.Qxd8+ Kxd8 8.0-0-0+ Bd7 scores 65% for Black.
A2.1 6.d5?! f5 scores 79% for Black.
A2.2 6.Nxe4?! does not appear in Mega21 - White has very little compensation for a pawn and the bishop-pair after 6...cxd4.
B) 4.e3 (299 games)
After the little-played, but best-scoring, 4...cxd4!? the line splits.
B1 5.exd4 Bf5!?, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 6.Nf3 e6 7.Bb5+ Nc6 8.Ne5 Qc7 scores 100% for Black, albeit from just four games.
B1.2 6.Bd3 Bxd3 7.Qxd3 e6 scores 50% for Black, albeit from just four games.
B2 5.Qxd4 Nc6 6.Bb5 a6 7.Bxc6+ bxc6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from just two games.
C) 4.Nf3 (75 games)
4...Ne4!? 5.Bf4 Qa5 6.Bd2 Nxd2 scores 75% for Black, albeit from just four games.
D) 4.e4 (61 games)
After 4...Nxe4 5.Nxe4 dxe4 the line splits.
D1 6.d5 Qb6 scores 58% for Black.
D2 6.dxc5 Qa5+ 7.Qd2 Qxd2+ 8.Bxd2 e5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from just five games.
E) 4.dxc5 (45 games)
4...d4 5.Bxf6 exf6 6.Ne4 Bf5 7.Nd6+ Bxd6 8.cxd6 Qb6!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from just two games.
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