Beat The ... King's Gambit

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The King's Gambit: 1.e4 e5 2.f4 is what puts off many players from meeting 1.e4 with 1...e5.

After all, who wants to go to the trouble of learning the complications that can arise after 2...exf4 if the opening is any case a fairly rare bird?

The good news is that, statistically speaking, Black does not have to study 2...exf4, which scores 'only' 45%. Instead, 2...Bc5 scores 47%.

After the further moves 3.Nf3 d6, Black's score rises to 48%.

Position after 3...d6

White has three main tries.

A) 4.c3 (1,301 games)

Black scores an excellent 54% with the little-known prophylactic retreat 4...Bb6!?

After the further moves 5.d4 exd4 6.cxd4 Bg4, the line splits.

A1 7.Be3 Nf6 8.Nc3 reaches a position that only occurs 14 times in Mega21. Black has scored 50% in five games that saw 8...Nxe4!? 9.Nxe4 Qe7 and 75% in four games that saw 8...Nc6 (rising to 100% after 9.Be2 Qe7, a position which, thanks to transpositions, occurs six times in Mega21).

A2 7.Be2 Nf6 8.Nc3 Nc6 scores 80% for Black.

B) 4.Bc4 (1,190 games)

After 4...Nf6 the line splits.

B1 5.Nc3 (not 5.fxe5 dxe5 6.Nxe5?? Qd4) Nc6 6.d3 a6!? leads to another split.

B1.1 7.f5!? b5 8.Bb3 Na5 scores 61% for Black.

B1.2 7.fxe5 dxe5 8.Bg5 h6, after which the line splits again: B1.2a 9.Bh4 Qd6 scores 71% for Black; B1.2b 9.Bxf6 Qxf6 scores 56% for Black.

B1.3 7.Nd5 h6 8.c3 Ba7 scores 50% for Black.

B2 5.d3 Nc6 6.c3 (6.Nc3 is a transposition to B1) 0-0 leads to another split.

B2.1 7.b4 Bb6 8.a4 is reached in nine games in Mega21. Black scores just 7%, but the engines point out the excellent novelty 8...exf4! 9.a5 (9.Bxf4 a5 is even better for Black, according to the engines) Be3 10.Bxe3 fxe3, which both engines reckon gives Black the upper hand.

B2.2  7.Qe2 Bg4 is reached in 13 games in Mega21, with Black scoring 80%.

C) 4.Nc3 (1,039 games)

After 4...Nf6, the overwhelmingly most-popular move is 5.Bc4, which is a transposition to B1. A long way behind in second place, popularity-wise, is 5.d3, which is a transposition to B2. Just two other moves appear more than 20 times in Mega21.

C1 5.fxe5 dxe5 6.Nxe5 0-0 scores 69% for Black.

C2 5.d4?! exd4 6.Nxd4 0-0 scores 72% for Black.