IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Tiviakov Variation of the Scandinavian: 1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qd6 has been known since at least 1968, but received a huge boost when Sergei Tiviakov started playing it on the international stage in 2005.
The move 3...Qd6 scores 47% in Mega21, which is respectable, especially when compared with the 45% of 3...Qa5 and the 40% of 3...Qd8.
White usually replies to 3...Qd6 with 4.d4, which scores 55%, but that is edged by the 56% of 4.g3!?
Black nearly always replies 4...Nf6, but after 5.Bg2 there are five reasonably popular continuations.
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| Position after 5.Bg2 |
After 6.d4 (the marginally more popular 6.Nge2 scores equally well, but the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 prefer d4), the line splits.
A1 6...Bg4 7.Nf3 e6 8.0-0 Be7 9.h3, when the line splits again.
A1.1 9...Bxf3 10.Bxf3 0-0 11.Ne2!? scores 68% for White.
A1.2 9...Bh5 10.Ne2!? scores 75% for White.
A2 6...Bf5 7.Nge2 e6 8.0-0 Be7 9.Bf4 scores 65% for White.
B) 5...Bg4 (85 games)
After 6.Nf3 the line splits.
B1 6...Nc6 7.h3 Bh5 8.0-0 scores 69% for White, rising to 94% if Black plays the most-popular response 8...0-0-0, albeit there are only eight games with this move in Mega21.
B2 6...c6 7.0-0 e6 8.d4 is a transposition to A1.
C) 5...a6!? (78 games)
Black's fifth move is strongly disliked by the engines. After 6.d4 the line splits.
C1 6...Bg4 7.Nge2 Nc6 8.Bf4 scores 78% for White.
C2 6...Nc6 7.Bf4 scores 93% for White.
D) 5...Nc6 (76 games)
6.Nf3 Bg4 is a transposition to B1.
E) 5...g6 (30 games)
6.d4 Bg7 7.Nge2 0-0 8.Bf4 scores 71% for White, albeit from a small sample.
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