Beat The ... Berlin

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Berlin Variation of the Spanish: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 Nf6 leapt from relative obscurity to become an ever-present in major international tournaments thanks to its adoption as a drawing line for Black.

Compared with the Petrov Defence, which it replaced in popularity among the elite, the Berlin is viewed as giving more winning chances.

This is no doubt largely because there are so many choices for both sides.

White scores 59% with the two main moves, 4.0-0 and 4.d3, but this is edged by the 60% scored by 4.Qe2!?

Position after 4.Qe2!?

Black has three main replies.

A) 4...Bc5 (605 games)

White's most-popular move is 5.c3, but that scores 55% compared with 60% for 5.d3, after which the line splits.

A1 5...d6 6.c3 0-0 7.Nbd2 scores 64% for White.

A2 5...Nd4 6.Nxd4 Bxd4 7.c3 Bb6 8.Bg5 scores 72% for White.

A3 5...0-0 6.c3 d6 transposes to A1, while 6...Re8 can be met by 7.Bg5, scoring 65% for White.

B) 4...d6 (449 games)

The simple 5.0-0 scores 71% for White. Black has two main tries.

B1 5...Bd7 6.c3 Be7 7.Rd1 scores 80% for White.

B2 5...Be7 6.c3 0-0 7.Rd1 scores 71% for White.

C) 4...a6 (292 games)

White scores 61% with 5.Ba4, which transposes to lines more normally reached by the move-order 3...a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.Qe2. This is a major system in itself, but here are the four main lines treated statistically from White's viewpoint.

C1 5...b5 6.Bb3 Be7 7.d4!?, a little-known favourite of Tiviakov's that is liked by the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 and scores an impressive 62% for White.

C2 5...Be7 6.0-0 b5 7.Bb3 0-0 8.c3, which scores 57% for White.

C3 5...d6 6.c3 Be7 7.0-0 0-0 8.h3, which scores 61% for White.

C4 5....Bc5 6.Bxc6!?  - another Tiviakov speciality liked by the engines. Black's main reply in Mega21, albeit by a small margin, is 6...dxc6, after which 7.Nxe5 scores 78% for White. Stronger players have recently usually preferred 6...bxc6, but there are only 18 examples in Mega21 and two of those are duplicates. For what it is worth, White's most-successful reply is 7.d3, scoring 67%, but from just three games, although they include a 2203 beating a 2540.