Beat The ... Scotch

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Scotch: 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 has always been fairly popular with club players, and thanks to Garry Kasparov it received a major boost at the elite level in the 1990s.

Black's most-popular reply, 4...Bc5, scores 46%, while the second-most popular, 4...Nf6, scores 48%, but best is the lesser-known 4...Bb4+ with 50%

Position after 4...Bb4+

White has tried three moves.

A) 5.c3 (2,425 games)

After 5...Bc5 (this and the little-played 5...Ba5 score equally well but ...Bc5 is much preferred by the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1), the line splits.

A1 6.Be3 Bb6, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 7.Nf5 Bxe3 8.Nxe3 Nge7!?, when A1.1a 9.g3 0-0 10.Bg2 d6 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample, A1.1b 9.Bc4 0-0 10.0-0 d6 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1c 9.c4!? 0-0 10.Nc3 d6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

A1.2 7.Bc4 d6 8.0-0 Nge7 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A1.3 7.Qg4!? Qf6 8.Qg3 d6 9.Nb5 Bxe3!?, when A1.3a 10.Qxe3 Qe7 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.3b 10.Nxc7+ Kd8 11.Nxa8 Bc1!? 12.Nd2 Bxb2 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

A1.4 7.Nd2 Nge7, when A1.4a 8.Nc4 Bxd4!? 0-0 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.4b 8.Bd3 0-0 9.0-0 d5 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

A2 6.Nxc6 bxc6 7.Bd3 d6 8.0-0 Nf6 scores 62% for Black.

A3 6.Bc4 Qf6!? 7.Be3 Ne5 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B) 5.Nc3 (161 games)

After 5...Nf6 the line splits.

B1 6.Nxc6 bxc6 7.Bd3 d5 8.exd5 0-0!? 9.0-0 cxd5 (this and 9...Bg4 score equally well but the capture is preferred by the engines), after which the line splits again.

B1.1 10.Bg5 c6, when B1.1a 11.Qf3 Rb8!? scores 58% for Black, B1.1b 11.Na4 h6 12.Bh4 Bd6 scores 61% for Black and B1.1c 11.Ne2 h6 12.Bh4 Bd6 scores 58% for Black.

B1.2 10.h3 Rb8 11.Qf3 Bd6 scores 60% for Black.

B2 6.Bg5 Qe7 7.f3 Qc5!? scores 82% for Black.

B3 6.f3 d5, after which the line splits again.

B3.1 7.Nxc6 bxc6 scores 71% for Black.

B3.2 7.Bb5 Bd7 scores 77% for Black.

C) 5.Bd2 (43 games)

After 5...Qe7 the line splits.

C1 6.Nxc6!? dxc6 scores 100%  for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

C2 6.Nb5 d5!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.