Beat The ... Caro-Kann

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Caro-Kann: 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 is one of those openings whose popularity fluctuates at elite tournaments but tends to remain steady among club players.

White's best response statistically is 3.f3, which scores 58%.

Position after 3.f3

Since White's third move is clearly non-forcing, it is not surprising Black has seven reasonably popular replies.

A) 3...e6 (3,202 games)

White's most-successful try is 4.Nc3, to which Black has two main responses.

A1 4...Bb4, after which the position looks like a French Winawer, but with the extra moves f3 and c6. White's commonest continuation is 5.Bf4, which scores 57%, but White scores 59% with 5.a3, when the line splits.

A1.1 5...Bxc3+ 6.bxc3 dxe4 7.Nh3!? (not 7.fxe4? Qh4+), reaches a position that occurs just 10 times in Mega21. Four of those games saw 7...Qa5 8.Bb2, with White scoring 75%.

A1.2 5...Ba5 occurs just 24 times in Mega21. White scores 88% with 6.Bf4.

A2 4...Nf6 5.e5 Nfd7 6.f4 c5 is a transposition to the absolute main line of the Steinitz Variation of the French, which will normally not be what a Caro-Kann player is wanting. There are more than 21,500 games in which White continues 7.Nf3, scoring 57%, but fewer than 400 in which White plays 7.Nce2, scoring 58%.

B) 3...dxe4 (2,384 games)

Black has two main ways of meeting 4.fxe4.

B1 4...e5 5.Nf3, after which the line splits.

B1.1 5...exd4 6.Bc4, when the line splits again.

B1.1a 6...Be6 7.Bxe6 fxe6 8.0-0 scores 79% for White.

B1.1b 6...Be7 7.0-0 Nf6 8.Ng5 0-0 9.Nxf7!? Rxf7 10.Bxf7+ Kxf7 11.e5 scores 80% for White.

B1.1c 6...Nf6 7.0-0 Bc5 (7...Be7 is a transposition to B1.1b) 8.Ng5 0-0 has been reached 13 times in Mega21. White scores 88% with 9.Nxf7, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 reckon 9...Qe7!? seriously muddies the water. They much prefer 9.Bxf7+!? Rxf7 11.Nxf7.

B2 4...Nf6 5.e5 Nd5 6.c4 resembles an Alekhine and scores 77% for White.

C) 3...g6 (1,068 games)

After 4.Nc3 Bg7 5.Be3 Black has four main replies.

C1 5...dxe4 6.fxe4 leads to another split.

C1.1 6...Nf6 7.Nf3 0-0 8.h3 scores 69% for White.

C1.2 6...e5 7.Nf3 exd4 8.Bxd4 Bxd4 9.Qxd4 scores 63% for White.

C2 5...Qb6 and now the most-popular move 6.Qd2 scores only 43% for White, but 6.a3!? scores 55%.

C3 5...Nf6 6.e5 scores 61% for White against both 6...Nfd7 and 6...Ng8!?

C4 5...e6 6.Qd2 scores 70% for White.

D) 3...Qb6 (439 games)

Black has two main ways of meeting 4.Nc3

D1 4...dxe4 5.dxe4 e5!? 6.Nf3 exd4 7.Nxd4, after which the line splits again.

D1.1 7...Bc5 8.Na4 Qa5 9.c3 Be7 10.b4 scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample, while 9...Bd6 10.Nf3 scores 75% for White, but again from a small sample.

D1.2 7...Nf6 8.e5 Ng4 9.e6!? Bxe6 10.Bc4!? Bxc4 11.Qxg4 scores 60% for White, again from a small sample.

D2 4...e6 White has usually met this with 5.a3, but only scored 44%. Much better, statistically, is the 83% of 5.a4!?, but it is from a much-smaller sample.

E) 3...e5!? (266 games)

After 4.dxe5 Bc5 5.Nc3 Black has two main replies.

E1 5...Qb6 6.Na4, after which the line splits again.

E1.1 6...Qa5+ 7.c3 Bxg1 8.Rxg1 scores 60% for White.

E1.2 6...Bf2+ 7.Ke2 Qd4 8.Qxd4 Bxd4 reaches a position that occurs 19 times in Mega21. Most popular is 9.exd5, which scores 54%, but the engines much prefer 9.f4, which scores 67%, albeit in just three games.

E2 5...Ne7 6.Bd3 0-0 reaches a position that occurs just six times in Mega21, and again the engines like pushing the f pawn, 7.f4.

F) 3...Nf6 (257 games)

After 4.e5 Black has two replies.

F1 4...Nfd7 5.f4 e6 6.Nf3 c5 7.Nc3 is another transposition to a mainline French Steinitz, from which White scores 57%.

F2 4...Ng8!? 5.Bd3 e6 6.f4 scores 60% for White, rising to 75% after 6...c5 7.c3.

G) 3...Nd7 (141 games)

White scores 72% with 4.Nc3 (White scores 77% with 4.Bd3, but that only occurs 11 times in Mega21). Black has two main replies.

G1 4...e6 5.Be3 Bb4 6.Bd3 scores 75% for White.

G2 4...Nb6!? 5.Bf4 scores an amazing 93% for White, but only occurs seven times in Mega21. Slightly more frequent, with 11 appearances, is 5.Be3, which is preferred by the engines and scores 64%.