IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Sicilian Najdorf: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 is a tough nut to crack.
Indeed the move 5...a6 scores 49% in Mega21. In other words, statistically speaking, Black has already all but equalised,
There are almost 210,000 games with the position after 5...a6.
Of White's replies that appear at least 10,000 times, the best-scoring is 6.f4, which chalks up 54%.
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| Position after 6.f4 |
A) 6...e5 (3,948 games)
After 7.Nf3 the line splits.
A1 7...Nbd7 8.a4 Be7 9.Bd3 0-0 10.0-0, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 10...exf4 11.Bxf4!? Qb6+ 12.Kh1 Qxb2, when White scores 61% with both 13.Qe1 and 13.Nd5.
A1.2 10...Nc5 11.Kh1, with a further split: A1.2a 11...exf4 12.Bxf4 Bg4 13.Be3 Rc8 14.Qe2 scores 58% for White; A1.2b 11...d5 12.Nxe5, when 12...dxe4 13.Be2 scores 83% for White and 12...Ncxe4 13.Be3 scores 62% for White.
A2 7...Qc7 8.a4 (this scores 59%, as does 8.Bd3 - I have gone for the pawn move because it is slightly less well-known) Be7 9.Bd3 0-0 10.0-0, which scores 58% for White.
B) 6...e6 (2,456 games)
White scores 59% with 7.a4, edging out the 58% of the more-popular 7.Qf3, 7.Be2 and 7.Bd3.
B1 7...Be7 8.Be2, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 8...Qc7 9.0-0 brings a further split.
B1.1a 9...Nc6 10.Be3 0-0 11.Kh1 scores 56% for White.
B1.1b 9...0-0 10.Kh1 Nc6 11.Be3 reaches the same position as B1.1a.
B1.2 8...0-0 9.0-0 Nc6 (9...Qc7 is a transposition to B1.1b) 10.Be3 Qc7 is a transposition to B1.1a.
B2 8...0-0 9.0-0 Qc7 is a transposition to B1.1b while 9...Nc6 is a transposition to B1.2.
B3 8...Nc6 9.Be3 0-0 10.0-0 Qc7 is a transposition to B1.1a.
C) 6...Qc7 (2,350 games)
Transpositions to previous lines are possible, but White's score rises to 60% with 7.Qf3, to which Black has two main replies.
C1 7...g6 8.Be3 Bg7 9.h3, when the line splits again.
C1.1 9...0-0 reaches a position that occurs 14 times in Mega21. White scores 75% with 10.0-0-0.
C1.2 9...Nbd7 reaches a position that occurs 11 times in Mega21. White scores 80% with 10.0-0-0.
C2 7...Nc6 reaches a position that occurs 30 times in Mega21. In 20 of those games, White played 8.Be3, scoring 78%.
D) 6...Nbd7 (810 games)
After 7.Be2, the line splits.
D1 7...g6 8.Bf3!? Bg7 reaches a position that occurs 21 times in Mega21. White scores highly - at least 75% - with 9.g4, 9.Be3, 9.Nb3 and 9.Nde2, but none appears in the database more than four times.
D2 7...e5 8.fxe5 results in another split.
D2.1 8...dxe5 9.Nf5 scores 71% for White.
D2.2 8...Nxe5 reaches a position that occurs 10 times in Mega21. White scores 88% with 9.Bg5, but there are only four games.
D3 7...e6 8.Bf3 results in another split.
D3.1 8...Qc7 9.0-0, at which point the line splits again.
D3.1a 9...Be7 10.a4 0-0 11.g4 scores 82% for White.
D3.1b 9...Rb8 10.Kh1 b5 reaches a position that occurs 10 times in Mega21. White scores highly - at least 75% - with 11.e5, 11.Re1, 11.a3 and 11.Be3, but none appears in the database more than four times.
D3.2 8...Be7 9.0-0, at which point the line splits again.
D3.2a 9...0-0 10.Kh1 Qc7 11.a4 scores 85% for White.
D3.2b 9...Qc7 is a transposition to D3.1a.
E) 6...g6 (339 games)
After 7.Be2 Bg7 8.0-0 0-0 9.Kh1 the line splits.
E1 9...Nbd7 10.Be3 scores 56% for White.
E2 9...Nc6 10.Nb3 scores 63% for White.
E3 9...Qc7 10.a4 scores 86% for White.
F) 6...Nc6 (270 games)
Most popular is 7.Be2, which scores a very healthy 60%, but 7.Nf3!? scores an even better 68%, after which the line splits.
F1 7...e6 8.Bd3 leads to another split.
F1.1 8...Be7 9.0-0 0-0 10.Kh1 scores 71% for White.
F1.2 8...Qc7 9.0-0 Be7 10.Qe1 0-0 11.e5 scores an amazing 96% for White, albeit from only 14 games.
F1.3 8...b5 9.0-0 Bb7 10.Qe1 scores 71% for White, albeit from only seven games.
F2 7...Bg4 8.h3 Bxf3 9.Qxf3 scores a perfect 100% for White, albeit from only 12 games.
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