IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Chigorin Defence to the Queen's Gambit: 1.d4 d5 2.c4 Nc6 does not have a great theoretical reputation but can be irritating for club-level d4 players.
White scores 56% with 3.Nf3 and 58% with 3.cxd5, but an even more impressive 61% with 3.Nc3.
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| Position after 3.Nc3 |
A) 3...dxc4 (2,268 games)
The immediate thrust 4.d5 scores 59%, but 4.Nf3 easily beats that with 69%, after which the line splits.
A1 4....Nf6 5.e3 (this and 5.e4 score equally well - I have gone with 5.e3 as it is less well-known), after which the line splits again.
A1.1 5...Bg4 6.Bxc4 e6 7.h3 Bh5 8.Bb5!? scores 65% for White.
A1.2 5...e5!? 6.Bxc4 exd4 7.exd4 scores 72% for White,
A2 4...Bg4?! (there are more than 350 examples of this dubious move in Mega21) 5.d5 Bxf3 6.exf3 Ne5 7.Bf4 scores 93% for White.
A3 4...e6 5.e4, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 5...Bb4 6.Bxc4 Nf6 7.e5!? scores 92% for White.
A3.2 5...Nf6 6.Bg5!? scores 85% for White.
B) 3...Nf6 (1,302 games)
After 4.Nf3 the line splits.
B1 4...e6 5.Bf4, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 5...Bb4 6.e3, when B1.1a 6...Ne4 7.Rc1 scores 84% for White while B1.1b 6...0-0 7.a3 Bxc3+ 8.bxc3 scores 83% for White.
B1.2 5...Bd6 6.Bg5!? Be7!? 7.e3, when B1.2a 7...0-0 8.Rc1 h6 9.Bh4 scores 78% for White while B1.2b 7...h6 8.Bh4 0-0 9.Rc1 is a transposition to B1.2a.
B2 4...dxc4 is a transposition to A1.
B3 4...Bf5 5.a3!? (this and 5.Qb3 score equally well - I have gone with 5.a3!? as it is preferred by my main analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) e6 6.e3 scores 66% for White.
C) 3...e5!? (378 games)
After 4.cxd5 Nxd4 5.e3 Nf5 6.e4!? the line splits.
C1 6...Nd4 appears only 13 times in Mega21. White scores 67% with both 7.f4 and 7.Be3.
C2 6...Nd6 also appears only 13 times in Mega21. White scores 90% with 7.f4.
D) 3...e6!? (233 games)
After 4.Nf3 the line splits.
D1 4...Nf6 is a transposition to B1.
D2 4...Bb4 5.Bf4 Nf6 is a transposition to B1.1.
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