IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Sämisch Variation against the King's Indian: 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 Bg7 4.e4 d6 5.f3 has been regarded as a major threat to the defence since it was first played at international level in 1925.
Black usually continues with 5...0-0, scoring 44%, but of those moves in Mega21 that appear more than 100 times, the best move statistically, scoring 51%, is 5...a6!?, which also happens to be, at least for quite some time, the top choice of the analysis engine Stockfish13 (Komodo12.1.1 prefers castling).
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| Position after 5...a6!? |
Both of White's popular replies involve developing the queen's bishop.
A) 6.Be3 (603 games)
After 6...c6 the line splits.
A1 7.Qd2 b5, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 8.0-0-0 Qa5 9.Kb1 Nbd7 scores 55% for Black.
A1.2 8.Bd3 0-0 (this and 8...bxc4 score equally well - I have gone for the move preferred by the engines) 9.Nge2 Nbd7 10.0-0 Bb7 11.Rac1 e5 scores 53% for Black.
A2 7.Bd3 0-0, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 8.Nge2 b5 9.0-0 bxc4 10.Bxc4 Nbd7 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2.2 8.a4 a5 9.Nge2 Na6, when A2.2a 10.0-0 Nb4 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.2b 10.Rc1 e5 11.0-0 Nb4 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
A3 7.a4 a5 8.Bd3 0-0 transposes to A2.2.
A4 7.c5!? Nbd7 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B) 6.Bg5 (91 games)
After 6...c6 the line splits.
B1 7.Qd2 h6!? 8.Be3 b5 scores 57% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 7.a4 a5 8.Qd2 Na6, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 9.Nge2 0-0 10.Nc1 e5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2.2 9.Rd1 Nb4 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
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