Beat The ... Dutch

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Dutch Defence: 1.d4 f5 is currently not popular at elite levels but remains a club weapon.

White's traditionally most-popular continuation of 2.c4 scores only 50%, while the commonest move today, 2.g3, scores a much-better 58%.

But even the latter is edged out by the 59% scored by both 2.Nc3 and 2.Bg5!?

I have gone for the bishop move because it is less well-known.

Position after 2.Bg5!?

Black has seven reasonably frequent replies - the high number being a sign that theory is still coming to terms with a move that, although it has been known since at least 1870, only became popular fairly recently.

A) 2...g6 (3,159 games)

After 3.Nd2 (this and 3.Nc3 score equally well - I have gone with Nd2 because, despite having been played by Garry Kasparov, it is much less popular) Bg7 4.e4 fxe4 5.Nxe4 the line splits.

A1 5...d5 6.Nc5 b6 7.Nb3, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 7...Nh6 8.Nf3 Nf7 9.Bh4 0-0 10.Be2 scores 62% for White.

A1.2 7...Nf6 8.Nf3 0-0 9.Be2 scores 66% for White..

A2 5...Nf6 6.Ng3!? scores 67% for White.

B) 2...h6 (1,643 games)

After 3.Bh4 the line splits.

B1 3...g5 4.e3!? Nf6 5.Bg3, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 5...d6 6.Nc3, when B1.1a 6...e6 7.h4 Rg8 8.hxg6 hxg6 9.Qd2 scores 69% for White and B1.1b 6...Bg7 7.h4 g4 8.Bc4 also scores 69% for White.

B1.2 5...Bg7 6.Nc3 d6 is a transposition to B1.1b.

B2 3...c5!? 4.e4! Qb6 5.exf5 Qxb2 6.Nd2 scores 94% for White, albeit from a small sample.

C) 2...Nf6 (1,518 games)

After 3.Bxf6 exf6 4.c4!? the line splits.

C1 4...Bb4+ 5.Nc3 scores 66% for White.

C2 4...d5 5.Nc3 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.

D) 2...c6 (589 games)

After 3.Nd2!? the line splits.

D1 3...Qb6 4.Ngf3 scores 83% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

D2 3...d5 4.e3, after which the line splits again.

D2.1 4...Qb6 Rb1 scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample.

D2.2 4...Nd7 5.Bd3 scores 58% for White, albeit from a small sample.

D2.3 4...Nf6 5.Bxf6 exf6 6.Bd3 scores 86% for White.

D2.4 4...g6 5.Ngf3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

E) 2...d5 (387 games)

After 3.c4!? the line splits.

E1 3...c6 4.Nc3 scores 91% for White, albeit from a small sample.

E2 3...h6 4.Bf4 scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample.

F) 2...d6 (203 games)

After 3.e4!? fxe4 4.Nc3 the line splits.

F1 4...Bf5 5.f3!? scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample.

F2 4...Nf6 5.f3!?, after which the line splits again.

F2.1 5...exf3 6.Nxf3 Bg4 7.h3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.

F2.2 5...e3 6.Bd3 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.

F3 4...d5 5.f3!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

G) 2...c5 (164 games)

After 3.e3!? Qb6 4.Nf3 White scores 90%, albeit from a small sample.