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| White has just played 15.Bg6-e4 in Cyrill Speiser (1320) - Spanton (1814), Basel Round 1 |
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White is a pawn up and winning, according to Stockfish14; has a slight edge, according to Komodo12.1.1.
The fact that two strong engines can disagree to such a large extent suggests this is not an easy middlegame to judge.
However, given enough time, Stockfish14 comes to reduce White's advantage to 'only' having the upper hand (+1.28 pawns, compared with Komodo12.1.1's +0.52 pawns).
Grandmaster Nigel Davies states that the No1 factor in chess is king safety, and here White is much better situated. White's pieces are also more active.
The number of pawn-islands is equal, but clearly Black's pawn-structure is superior, which could be a significant factor in any ending.
So what should Black play?
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15...Be6
This is Komodo12.1.1's choice, but Stockfish14 may well be right in preferring 15...Qg7!? After 16.Qxg7+ Kxg7 both engines reckon White has the upper hand, but Black has time to complete development and try to start manoeuvring against the white queenside pawns. Of course swopping queens reduces the chance of a tactical coup, but, for reasons explained above, the tactical situation in the diagram favours White (there was also the psychological consideration that CS is a junior, and it rarely hurts to get queens off against juniors). However, White is not forced to exchange queens - 16.Qe3 keeps an edge.
16.0-0
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16...Kh8?
Trying for a kingside attack, but the attempt is unrealistic. Again ...Qg7 is sensible.
17.Nh4 Kg8
Forced, thanks to the threat of Ng6+, so 16...Kh8? has wasted two tempi in what was already a bad position.
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| Can White avoid an exchange of queens by retreating to h5? |
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Yes, as 19...Bg4? fails to 20.Bxh7+!
However, Black can play 19...Qf7, when either queens come off or the white queen has to retreat from the vicinity of the black king.
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| Can Black grab the undefended a2 pawn? |
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20...Bxa2?! runs into 21.Nf5+, when 21...Kg8? 22.Rd7 is the start of a massacre, so Black has to play 21...Kh8, when 22.Nd6 is unpleasant, the engines continuing 22...Na5!? 23.Ra1 Nc4 24.fxe5 fxe5 25.Nf7+!? Kg7 26.Bxb7 - a sharp line, but all variations seem good for White.
The engines reckon the best move in the diagram is 20...Rad8, when they agree White is better but disagree as to how to proceed.
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