IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
Botvinnik's set-up in the English Opening can arise from various move-orders, but typical is 1.c4 e5 2.Nc3 Nc6 3.g3 g6 4.Bg2 Bg7 5.e4.
The formation of pawns on c4, e4 and (to come) d3 was pioneered by Nimzowitsch. He played it with the king's knight on f3.
Botvinnik refined this by developing the king's knight at e2, and it is this set-up that was popularised at club level by Tony Kosten in The Dynamic English (Gambit, 1999).
Black's overwhelmingly most-popular response, 5...d6, is also best statistically, scoring 48%, and White nearly always continues with 6.Nge2.
Of Black replies appearing at least 350 times in Mega21, the best statistically, scoring 54%, is 6...h5!?
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| Position after 6...h5!? |
After 7...Nh6 8.d3 Be6 9.Nd5 0-0 the line splits.
A1 10.0-0 f5 11.Bg5 Qd7 12.Qd2 Kh7 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 10.f3!? reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 100% with 10...Ne7 and 10...Nd4, albeit from very small samples.
B) 7.h3 (73 games)
After 7...Be6 8.d3 Qd7 the line splits.
B1 9.Nd5 h4 10.g4 f5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
B2 9.Be3 Nd4!? scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C) 7.d3 (19 games)
After 8...h4 9.h3 hxg3 10.fxg3 Be6 Black scores 50%, albeit from a small sample.
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