IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Sveshnikov Variation of the Sicilian Defence: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 e5, formerly known as the Lasker-Pelikan, is popular at club and elite levels.
White's most-popular reply, 6.Ndb5, scores 54%, while the next three most-popular moves score 35% or less.
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| Position after 6.Ndb5 |
A) 6...d6 (52,450 games)
Meeting this with the commonest response, 7.Bg5, is also the most successful statistically, keeping White's score at 54%, after which the line splits.
A1 7...a6 8.Na3, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 8...b5 9.Bxf6!?, when A1.1a 9...gxf6 10.Nd5 f5 11.g3 fxe4 12.Bg2 Be6 13.Bxe4 Bg7 14.Qh5 Rc8 15.Rd1 Ne7 16.Nxe7 Qxe7 17.0-0 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 9...Qxf6 10.Nd5 Qd8 11.c4!? scores 84% for White.
A1.2 8...Be6 9.Nc4, when A1.2a 9...Rc8 10.Bxf6 gxf6 11.Bd3!? Ne7 12.Ne3 Bh6 13.0-0 Bxh3 14.fxe3 Qb6 15.Qf3 scores 85% for White, A1.1b 9...Rb8 10.a4 Nb4 11.Ne3 scores 67% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and A1.1c 9...Nd4 10.Nd5!? Bxd5 11.exd5 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.3 8...Be7 9.Nc4!?, when A1.3a 9...b5 10.Bxf6 gxf6 11.Ne3 scores 90% for White, A1.3b 9...Nd4 10.Bxf6 Bxf6 11.Nd5 b5 12.Ncb6 Rb8 13.Nxc8 Rxc8 14.c3 scores 83% for White and A1.3c 9...Be6 10.Bxf6 gxf6 11.Ne3 scores 87% for White.
A2 7...Be7 8.Bxf6, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 8...gxf6 9.Nd5, when A2.1a 9...0-0 10.Nxe7+ Qxe7 11.Qxd6 scores 87% for White and A2.1b 9...Rb8 10.Nbc7+ Kf8 11.Qh5 scores 78% for White.
A2.2 8...Bxf6!? 9.Qxd6!? Qxd6 10.Nxd6+ scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3 7...Be6 8.Nd5!?, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 8...Rc8 9.Bxf6!? gaxf6 10.c3 scores 75% for White.
A3.2 8...Bxd5 9.exd5 Nce7 10.c3!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample (note that 10...Nexd5?! runs into 11.Qa4!, when 11...Qd7? loses to 12.Nxd6+ Bxd6 13.Bb5).
B) 6...h6!? (561 games)
After 7.Nd6+ Bxd6 8.Qxd6 Qe7 9.Qxe7+ Kxe7 10.b3 d6 11.Ba3 the line splits.
B1 11...a6 12.0-0-0 Rd8 13.Nd5+ Nxd5 14.exd5, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 14...Nb8 15.Re1!? scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B1.2 14...Nd4 15.c3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
B2 11...Be6 12.0-0-0 Rhd8 13.f3!? a6 14.Nd5+ Bxd5 15.exd5 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C) 6...a6!? (329 games)
After 7.Nd6+ Bxd6 8.Qxd6 Qe7 9.Qd1!? the line splits.
C1 9...d6 10.Be2!? Be6 11.0-0 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 9...h6 10.Be3, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 10...0-0 11.Qd2!? scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2.2 10...Qb4!? 11.a3, when C2.2a 11...Qe7 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 12.Qd2, 12.Bc4 and 12.Be2, albeit from very small samples, C2.2b 11...Qa5 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 12.b4 and 12.f4, albeit from very small samples, and C2.2c 11...Qxb2?? 12.Na4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2.3 10...d6 11.Be2, when C2.3a 11...Be6 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 12.0-0 and 12.Nd5, albeit from small samples, and C2.3b 11...0-0 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 12.0-0 and 12.Qd2, albeit from small samples.
C2.4 10...b5 11.a4 b4 12.Nd5 Nxd5 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 100% with 13.Qxd5 and 13.exd5, albeit from very small samples.
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