Beat The ... Delayed Dutch (part two)

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

Here I will cover 1.d4 e6 2.Nf3 f5.

Of those moves appearing at least 600 times in Mega21, the most successful, and also the most popular, is 3.g3, which scores 57%.

Position after 3.g3

Black has two popular replies.

A) 3...Nf6 (4,303 games) 

After 4.Bg2 the line splits.

A1 4...Be7 5.0-0 0-0 6.b3, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 6...d6 7.Bb2 Qe8 8.Nbd2, when A1.1a 8...Nc6 9.Ne1!? scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 8...Qh5 9.Ne1!? scores 85% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A1.2 6...d5 7.c4 (7.Ba3 scores equally well in Mega21, but the pawn move is much preferred by Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1), when A1.2a 7...c6 is a transposition to A3.2 of part one, A1.2b 7...Nc6 8.Bb2 Bd7 9.Nc3 scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A1.2c 7...Ne4 8.Ne5!? Nd7 9.f3 scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A2 4...d5 5.c4 (5.0-0 scores equally well in Mega21, but the pawn move is much less common and was Kasparov's choice in the position), after which the line splits again.

A2.1 5...c6 6.Bf4!?, when A2.1a 6...Be7 7.Nbd2 0-0 8.0-0 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 6...Bd6 7.Bxd6 Qxd6 8.0-0 0-0 9.Nc3 Nbd7 10.Qc2 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A2.2 5...Bd6!? 6.Bf4 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A2.3 5...Be7 is a transposition to A3 of part one.

B) 3...b6 (397 games)

After 4.Bg2 Bb7 5.0-0 Nf6 6.c4 Be7 7.d5!? the line splits.

B1 7...0-0 8.Nd4!?, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 8...c5 9.Nb5 scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 8...Qc8!? 9.Nc3, when B1.2a 9...c5 10.Nf3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample, and B1.2b 9...Na6 10.e4!? fxe4 11.Nxe4 Nxe4 12.Bxe4 scores 83% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

B2 7...exd5 8.Nd4 g6 9.cxd5 scores 93% for White.

B3 7...Qc8!? 8.Nd4 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.