HERE is the first of a two-part series written, but not published, during the covid panic.
In this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
When Black meets 1.d4 with 1...e6, many whites prefer to steer clear of the French Defence, which would arise after 2.e4, and instead continue with a move more akin to d-pawn openings.
Here I will cover 2.c4 f5, when White has three continuations that each appear more than 5,000 times in Mega21.
3.Nc3 scores 52%, and 3.Nf3 scores 53%, but most popular, and most successful statistically, is 3.g3 with 59%.
Games nearly always continue 3...Nf6 4.Bg2, at which point Black has five common continuations.
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| Position after 4.Bg2 |
After 5.Nf3, which increases White's score to 61%, the line splits.
A1 5...0-0 6.d5!?, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6...Bb4+ 7.Bd2 Qe7 8.Nc3 e5 9.a3 Bxc3 10.Bxc3 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6...Ne4 7.Nbd2 Nxd2 8.Bxd2 Bf6 9.Qc2 scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5...d6 6.0-0 0-0 7.b3, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 7...Qe8 8.Nc3, when A2.1a 8...a5 9.Bb2 Na6 10.Re1 Qg6 11.e4!? scores 86% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 8...Qh5 9.Ba3 a5 10.d5!? scores 85% for White.
A2.2 7...Ne4 8.Bb2, when A2.2a 8...Bf6 9.Nbd2 Nc6 10.Ne1!? scores 77% for White, and A2.2b 8...Nd7 9.Nc3 Ndf6 10.Nfd2 scores 68% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2.3 7...a5 8.Nc3, when A2.3a 8...Qe8 is a transposition to A2.1a, and A2.3b 8...Ne4 9.Bb2 Nxc3 10.Bxc3 Qe8 11.Qd3 scores 57% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3 5...d5 6.0-0, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 6...0-0 7.Qc2!? c6 8.Nbd2, when A3.1a 8...Ne4 9.Ne5 Nd7 10.Nd3!? Bf6 11.e3 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A3.1b 8...Qe8 9.Ne5 Nbd7 10.Nd3!? Ne4 11.Nf3 g5!? 12.Rb1!? scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.2 6...c6 7.b3 0-0 8.Qc2!?, when A3.2a 8...Ne4 9.Ba3 scores 70% for White, and A3.2b 8...Qe8 9.Nbd2 scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4 5...c6!? 6.0-0, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 6...0-0 7.Nbd2 d5 8.Qc2 is a transposition to A3.1.
A4.2 6...d5 is a transposition to A3.2.
B) 4...d5 (3,433 games)
White's most-popular move 5.Nf3 scores 59%, but 5.Qc2!? scores a tremendous 70%. After 5...c6 6.Nh3 the line splits.
B1 6...Bd6 7.0-0 0-0 8.Bf4, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 8...Be7!? 9.Nc3, when B1.1a 9...Nh5 10.Rad1 Nxf4 11.Nxh4 Bd6 12.e3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and B1.1b 9...dxc4 reaches a position in Mega21 in which White scores 75% with both 10.Rad1 and 10.e4, albeit from small samples.
B1.2 8...b6 9.Nd2 Bb7 10.Rac1 Na6 11.cxd5 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2 6...Be7 7.0-0 0-0 8.Nf4 scores 78% for White.
C) 4...c6 (2,474 games)
After 5.Nd2!? d5 6.Qc2!? Bd6 7.Nh3 0-0 8.Nf3!? the line splits.
C1 8...Ne4 9.0-0 Nd7 10.Nf4 Qe7 11.Nd3 b6 12.b4!? scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 8...b6 9.0-0, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 9...Ne4 10.Nf4 Qe7 11.Nd3, when C2.1a 11...Bb7 12.Bf4 Bxf4 13.Nxf4 scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C2.1b 11...Ba6 12.cxd5 scores 67% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
C2.2 9...Bb7 10.Bf4 scores 61% for White.
C2.3 9...Ba6 10.cxd5 cxd5 11.Bf4 scores 57% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D) 4...Bb4+ (1,333 games)
After 5.Nd2!? 0-0 6.Nf3 the line splits.
D1 6...d6 7.0-0 Bxd2 8.Qxd2!?, after which the line splits again.
D1.1 8...Qe7 9.b4!? scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D1.2 8...a5 9.b3 Qe8 10.Ba3!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
D2 6...d5 7.Qc2!? scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D3 6...a5!? 7.0-0 b6!? 8.Ne5 Ra7 9.Nb1!? scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D4 6...b6!? 7.a3, after which the line splits again.
D4.1 7...Bxd2 8.Nxd2!? scores 92% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D4.2 7...Be7 8.Ne5 scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample.
E) 4...d6 (204 games)
After 5.Nf3 Be7 the line has transposed to A2.
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