HERE is a post I wrote but did not publish during Lockdown.
IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Sicilian Dragon: 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 g6 is one of the commonest opening sequences in chess.
Of those continuations featuring more than 3,000 times in Mega21, the most-popular, 6.Be3, scores a respectable 56%, but this is eclipsed by the 58% of 6.f4!?
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| Position after 6.f4!? |
A) 6...Nc6 (1,599 games)
After 7.Nf3!? Bg7 8.Bd3 0-0 9.0-0 the line splits.
A1 9...a6 10.Kh1 b5 11.Qe1 scores 60% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 9...Bg4 10.h3 Bxf3 11.Qxf3 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3 9...b5!? 10.Nxb5!? Qb6+ 11.Kh1 Nxe4!? 12.Nxa7 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A4 9...Bd7 10.Kh1!? scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B) 6...Bg7 (1,064 games)
After 7.e5!? the line splits.
B1 7...dxe5 8.fxe5, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 8...Ng4? 9.Bb5+, when B1.1a 9...Kf8 10.Ne6+! scores 100% for White (there are 135 examples of this trap in Mega21), B1.1b 9...Nc6 10.Nxc6 Qxd1+ 11.Nxd1 a6 12.Ba4 Bd7 13.h3 scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample, and B1.1c 9... Bd7 10.Qxg4 scores 85% for White.
B1.2 8...Nd5? 9.Bb5+, when B1.2a 9...Kf8 10.0-0 Bxe5 11.Nxd5 Qxd5 12.Bh6+ Kg8 13.Nd5 Qc5+ (12...Qxc5? 13.Nxe7#) 14.Be3 Qc7 15.Nh6+ leads to mate in one, and B1.2b 9...Bd7 10.Nxd5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B1.3 8...Nfd7 9.e6, when B1.3a 9...Ne5!? 10.Bb5+ Nbc6 11.exf7+ Kxf7 12.0-0 Bf6 13.Nxc6 bxc6 reaches a position where White scores 75% with both 14.Ba4 and 14.Qxd8, albeit from small samples, and B1.3b 9...fxe6 10.Nxe6 Bxc3+ 11.bxc3 Qa5 12.Qd4!? Nf6 13.Bb5+ scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2 7...Nh5 8.Bb5+ Bd7 9.Qe2!? scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C) 6...Nbd7 (335 games)
After 7.Nf3!? the line splits.
C1 7...Bg7 8.Bc4!? scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 7...Qc7!? occurs just 17 times in Mega21. The analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 reckon White already has a large advantage after the simple 8.Qd4.
Before Jon Mestel demonstrated in the 1970s that line B2 with 7. .. Nh5 was playable, in the 1960s line B with 6. .. Bg7 used to be considered an error and you tried to catch out less booked up players who didn't "know" that you should play 6. .. Nc6 or 6. .. Nbd7. Many games would end quickly with line B1.1a
ReplyDeleteThe tactical justification of the line running 6. .. Bg7 7. e5 Nh5 is that 8. g4 which looks as if it traps the Knight will fail to 8. .. Nxf4 9. Bxf4 dxe5 forking d4 and f4.
RdC
I've often wanted to play the Dragon but have never got up the courage, mainly because of the sharp theory. My playing the Accelerated Dragon is a sort of compromise - it's not "the" Dragon, but it is "a" dragon.
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