Best By Test (part six)

ARGUABLY the biggest surprise from statistically analysing the 238,275 games played last year and appearing in ChessBase's 2020 Mega database is the success of 1...e6 in reply to 1.e4.

The move 1...e6 turns in a rating performance of just -10, ie the black players performed just 10 elo below their rating.

Here, as a reminder, is how the scores rank.

Table Six: Black Replies By Rating Performance (tie broken by frequency of appearance)
Move.........Rating Performance
1...e6.....................-10
1...d5.....................-18
1...c5.....................-19
1...c6.....................-19
1...e5.....................-28
1...d6.....................-41
1...Nf6...................-44
1...g6.....................-57
1...b6.....................-70
1...Nc6...................-71

As can be seen, 1...e6 is a clear winner, so it should be interesting to see how blacks are racking up this score.

In the table below I have left out moves that occur less than 0.1% of the time.

Table 16: White Moves After 1.e4 e6

Move.........Number Of Times Played

2.d4.........................12,081

2.d3..............................903

2.Nf3............................713

2.Qe2...........................246

2.Nc3............................215

2.c4...............................141

2.b3...............................140

2.f4..................................65

2.g3.................................21

2.e5.................................18

No shocks there, at least to me, although I am a bit surprised 2.b3 was played (slightly) less often than 2.c4.

Table 17: White Second Moves By Percentage Score (ties broken by frequency of appearance)

Move...........................Score

2.Qe2............................61%

2.c4...............................56%

2.d4...............................54%

2.d3...............................54%

2.b3...............................54%

2.g3...............................50%

2.f4................................43%

2.Nf3..............................41%

2.Nc3.............................41%

2.e5...............................39%

The move 2.Qe2 is a clear winner, and it is not as though the result comes from a particularly small sample size.

But as usual it is probably wise to pay more attention to rating performance.

Table 18: White Second Moves By Rating Performance

Move.......................Rating Performance

2.Qe2.............................+24

2.d4................................+18

2.b3................................+17

2.d3................................+11

2.Nc3.............................+5

2.c4................................-13

2.g3................................-42

2.Nf3..............................-47

2.f4.................................-96

2.e5................................-154

The move 2.Qe2 holds first place, and by a relatively clear margin, but there is not much to choose between the mainstream 2.d4 and 2.b3.

How should Black meet 2.Qe2, at least from a statistical viewpoint?

There are 246 games from last year in Mega20 with the position after 1.e4 e6 2.Qe2, as shown in the table below (I have ignored moves appearing fewer than 10 times).

Table 19: Black Moves After 1.e4 e6 2.Qe2

Move........Number Of Times Played

2...c5.......................130

2...Be7......................28

2...Nc6......................20

2...d5...........'.............19

2...e5.........................16

Could the popularity of 2...c5 be the key to 2.Qe2's success in that by playing it blacks are switching from a French set-up to a Sicilian one?

Table 20: Black Second Moves By Percentage Score

Move......................Score

2...Nc6....................50%

2...Be7....................45%

2...d5.......................42%

2...e5.......................41%

2...c5.......................40%

Popularity is no guarantee of success, it seems.

Table 21: Black Second Moves By Rating Performance

Move..............Rating Performance

2...e5.......................+37

2...Nc6.....................+6

2...Be7.....................=

2...d5.......................-15

2...c5.......................-18

Here is food for thought. The poor result of 2...c5 is confirmed, while the performance of 2...e5 is startling, albeit from a small number of games.