Best By Test (part three)

BLACK'S overwhelmingly most-popular reply to 1.e4 is 1...c5 which, as we saw in part two, scores 50% with a rating performance of -19.

No fewer than 24 moves were tried by White on move two in the 238,275 games from 2019 that appear in ChessBase's 2020 Mega database.

As usual I will ignore those moves played less than 0.1% of the time. That leaves 14 moves to consider.

Table Seven: Popularity Of White Moves After 1.e4 c5

Move.....Number Of Times Played

2.Nf3...................34,594

2.Nc3....................5,408

2.c3.......................2,662

2.d4..........................972

2.d3..........................355

2.c4..........................335

2.b3..........................333

2.Bc4.......................309

2.Ne2.......................280
2.f4...........................226
2.g3..........................169
2.Be2........................135
2.b4..........................119
2.a3............................99

The most-popular move was always going to be 2.Nf3, but I am a little surprised it is so far ahead of all other moves combined.

Surprises for me are that 2.f4 and 2.g3 are so low on the list, and that 2.Na3 is not played enough to cross the 0.1% threshold.

Table Eight: White Second Moves By Percentage Score (ties broken by frequency of appearance)
Move.............Score
2.Ne2.............55%
2.Be2.............53%
2.Nf3..............51%
2.Nc3.............49%
2.c3................49%
2.b3................49%
2.g3................49%
2.a3................48%
2.b4................45%
2.d4................44%
2.d3................44%
2.f4.................44%
2.c4................39%
2.Bc4..............27%

The success of 2.Ne2 and 2.Be2 is the big story here, although as I write this I have yet to compile the rating performances which, as usual may tell a very different tale.
The miserable score of 2.Bc4 also surprises me.

Table Nine: White Second Moves By Rating Performance (ties broken by frequency of appearance)
Move.............Rating Performance
2.c3..........................+40
2.f4...........................+31
2.Be2........................+25
2.Nf3........................+21
2.d4..........................+17
2.Nc3.......................+13
2.Ne2.......................+13
2.b3..........................+12
2.d3..........................+8
2.g3...........................+7
2.c4...........................-5
2.b4...........................-12
2.Bc4........................-28
2.a3...........................-63

Well, 2.Ne2 does not repeat its percentage success, but 2.Be2 has again done very well.
Perhaps the latter wrong-foots blacks, while 2.Ne2 is more likely to transpose to familiar Open or Closed Sicilian lines.
But the stand-out performances, at least to me, are the high plus-scores of 2.f4 and especially 2.c3.
(To be continued)