Best By Test (part four)

CONCENTRATING for the moment on 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 it is interesting to see the popularity of Black's second-move choices in modern chess.

As usual I am statistically analysing from the 238,275 games played in 2019 that appear in ChessBase's 2020 Mega database, while ignoring those moves that appear less than 0.1% of the time.

There are 34,594 games that began 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3, so the cut-off point is 35 games.

Table 10: Popularity Of Black Moves After 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3

Move.....Number Of Times Played

2...d6....................13,952

2...Nc6...................9,649

2...e6......................8,246

2...g6......................1,806

2...a6.........................693

2...Nf6......................268

2...b6..........................42

The big three should surprise no one, and I expect most people will have expected them to appear in the order shown.

Table 11: Black Second Moves By Percentage Score (ties broken by frequency of appearance)

Move...................Score

2...b6....................58%

2...a6....................54%

2...e6....................50%

2...d6....................49%

2...Nc6.................49%

2...Nf6..................48%

2...g6....................46%

The success of the relatively unpopular moves, 2...a6 and especially 2...b6, is a major surprise, but as usual this may change when moves are ranked by rating performance.

Table 12: Black Second Moves By Rating Performance

Move..........Rating Performance

2...g6......................-9

2...b6......................-15

2...d6......................-16

2...e6......................-23

2...Nc6...................-25

2...Nf6....................-26

2...a6......................-43

So 2...b6 confirms its success, but 2...a6 collapses. The other big mover is 2...g6 - bottom percentage-wise but top in rating performance.

There is a big caveat with 2...b6,  however - the statistics are based on just 42 games.