IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
Here I will cover those Grand Prix Attack lines against the Sicilian Defence that start with 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 e6 3.f4.
After 3...d5 there are five continuations in Mega21 that each features more than 300 games.
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| Position after 3...d5 |
After 4...dxe4 5.Nxe4 Nc6 the line splits.
A1 6.Bb5 Bd7, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 7.0-0 Nh6!?, when A1.1a 8.d3 Be7 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 8.b3 Be7 9.Bb2 Nf5 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 7.Qe2 Nh6!? 8.b3 Nf5 9.Bb2 reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 100% with both 9...Nd4 and 9...a6, albeit from very small samples.
A2 6.g3 Nh6!? 7.Bg2 Nf5 8.0-0 Be7 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B) 4.Bb5+ (934 games)
After 4...Bd7 the line splits.
B1 5.Bxd7+ Qxd7, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 6.d3 dxe4, when B1.1a 7.Nxe4 Be7 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.1b 7.dxe4 Qxd1+ 8.Nxd1 Nc6 9.c3 Nf6 scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.2 6.Nf3 dxe4 7.Nxe4 Nc6, when B1.2a 8.d3 Nh6!? scores 85% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.2b 8.0-0 Be7 (8...Nh6!? won the only time it was played) 9.d3 Nh6!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 5.Qe2 dxe4, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 6.Nxe4 Bxb5 7.Qxb5+ Qd7 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2.2 6.Bxd7+ Qxd7 7.Nxe4 Nc6 8.Nf3 Be7 scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C) 4.exd5 (350 games)
After 4...exd5 5.Bb5+ Nc6 the line splits.
C1 6.Nf3 Nf6, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 7.0-0 Be7, when C1.1a 8.Ne5 Bd7 9.Bxc6 bxc6!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, C1.1b 8.d3 0-0 9.Bxc6 bxc6 10.Ne5 Qc7 scores 57% for Black, and C1.1c 8.Bxc6+ bxc6 9.d3 0-0 is a transposition to C1.1b.
C1.2 7.Ne5 Qc7 8.Qf3 Be6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C1.3 7.Bxc6+ bxc6 8.0-0 Be7 is a transposition to C1.1c.
C1.4 7.Qe2 Be7, when C1.4a 8.Ne5 Qc7 9.0-0 0-0 10.Bxc6 bxc6 11.d3 Re8 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.4b 8.0-0 0-0 9.Bxc6 bxc6 10.Ne5 Qc7 is a transposition to C1.4a, and C1.4c 8.Bxc6+ bxc6 9.0-0 0-0 is a transposition to C1.4b.
C2 6.Qe2 Be7 7.Nf3 Nf6 is a transposition to C1.4.
D) 4.d3 (335 games)
After 4...Nc6 5.Nf3 Be7!? 6.g3 h5!? Black scores 67%, albeit from a small sample.
E) 4.e5 (323 games)
After 4...Nc6 5.Nf3 Nh6!? the line splits.
E1 6.Bb5 Be7 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
E2 6.g3 Nf5 7.Bg2 Be7, after which the line splits again.
E2.1 8.0-0 h5 scores 72% for Black.
E2.2 8.d3 h5 scores 96% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
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