Beat The ... Grand Prix Attack

HERE is a series I wrote in the covid panic but did not publish.

In this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Grand Prix Attack is a system against the Sicilian Defence: 1.e4 c5 in which White plays an early f4, usually preceded by Nc3.

Here I am looking at what happens statistically if White launches the GPA immediately by playing 2.f4.

Black's most-popular reply is 2...Nc6, which scores an excellent 54%, but even this is beaten by the 59% of 2...d5!?

Position after 2...d5!?

White has four main responses.

A) 3.exd5 (2,710 games)

After 3...Nf6 the line splits.

A1 4.Bb5+ Nbd7 5.c4 g6!? 6.Nf3 Bg7 7.0-0 0-0 scores 83% for Black.

A2 4.c4 e6 5.dxe6 Bxe6 6.Nf3 Nc6, after which the line splits again.

A2.1 7.Be2 Qc7 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2.2 7.Nc3 Bd6 scores 72% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A3 4.Nc3 Nxd5, after which the line splits again.

A3.1 5.Nxd5 Qxd5, when A3.1a 6.Qf3 Qd6!? scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A3.1b 6.Nf3 g6 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A3.2 5.Nf3 Nxc3 6.bxc3 g6 scores 69% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A3.3 5.Bb5+ Bd7 6.Bxd7+ Qxd7 7.Nxd5 Qxd5 8.Qf3 Qd7 scores 86% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A4 4.Nf3 Nxd5, after which the line splits again.

A4.1 5.Bb5+ Bd7 6.Bxd7+ Nxd7!? scores 65% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A4.2 5.d3?! Nc6 scores 92% for Black.

A4.3 5.d4 e6!? scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A4.4 5.Bc4 Nb6 scores 69% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A4.5 5.Nc3 is a transposition to A3.2.

B) 3.e5 (882 games)

After 3...Nc6 the line splits.

B1 4.Nf3 Nh6, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 5.Be2 Nf5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 5.c3 Bg4 6.Be2 e6, when B1.2a 7.0-0 Nf5 8.Na3 Be7 scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.2b 7.d3 Nf5 8.0-0 Be7 9.Na3 h5!? 10.Nc2 d4!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B2 4.c3 Nh6!? 5.Nf3 is a transposition to B1.2.

B3 4.Bb5 Nh6!? 5.Nf3 Bg4 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C) 3.Nc3 (525 games)

After 3...d4 4.Nce2 Nf6!? 5.d3 Nc6 6.Nf3 Bg4 7.Ng3 h5 Black scores 90%, albeit from a small sample.

D) 3.Bb5+ (178 games)

After 3...Nc6!? 4.exd5 Qxd5 Black scores 65%, albeit from a small sample.

(to be continued)