IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The modern way to play the Grand Prix Attack against the Sicilian Defence is to precede f4 with Nc3, in other words 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3, and here I want to look at the GPA after ...Nc6, ie 2...Nc6 3.f4.
Black's most-popular reply is 3...g6, scoring an excellent 55%.
 |
| Position after 3...g6 |
After 4.Nf3 Bg7 White has three common continuations.
A) 5.Bb5 (8,578 games)
After 5...Nd4 the line splits.
A1 6.0-0 a6!?, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 7.Bd3 d6 8.Nxd4 cxd4 9.Ne2 Nf6, when A1.1a 10.c3 dxc3 11.bxc3 0-0 12.Bc2 b5 scores 82% for Black and A1.1b 10.Kh1 e5 11.c3 0-0!? scores 83% for Black.
A1.2 7.Bc4 b5 8.Bd5 Ra7!? scores 83% for Black.
A1.3 7.Be2 e6, when A1.3a 8.d3 Ne7 9.Be3 Nec6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.3b 8.e5 d5 9.exd6 Qxd6 scores 77% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 6.Nxd4 cxd4 7.Ne2 Nf6!?, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 8.Bd3 (not 8.d3?? Qa5+) d6!?, when A2.1a 9.0-0 0-0 10.c3 dxc3 11.dxc3 b5!? scores 81% for Black, A2.1b 9.c3 dxc3 10.dxc3 0-0 11.0-0 is a transposition to A2.1a, and A2.1c 9.Nxd4 Nxe4 10.Bxe4 Bxd4 11.c3 Bg7 12.Qf3!? Qb6 13.d4 0-0 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
A2.2 8.e5 Nd5, when A2.2a 9.c4 Nc7!? scores 92% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.2b 9.c3 0-0!? scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A3 6.Bd3 d6 7.Nxd4 cxd4 8.Ne2 Nf6 is a transposition to A2.1.
A4 6.Bc4 e6, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 7.0-0 Ne7, when A4.1a 8.Nxd4 cxd4 9.Ne2 0-0 10.d3 d5 11.Bb3 dxe4 12.dxe4 b6 scores 77% for Black, A4.1b 8.d3 d5 scores 76% for Black, and A4.1c 8.e5 d5 9.exd6 Qxd6 scores 72% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A4.2 7.e5 Nxf3+ 8.Qxf3 d5 9.exd6 Qxd6 scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A4.3 7.d3 Ne7, when A4.3a 8.Nxd4 cxd4 9.Ne2 0-0 10.0-0 is a transposition to A4.1a, and A4.3b 8.0-0 is a transposition to A4.1b.
A5 6.a4 e6, after which the line splits again.
A5.1 7.0-0 Ne7, when A5.1a 8.e5 a6 9.Bc4 d5 10.exd6 Nef5!? 11.Ne4 Nxd6 12.Nxd6 Qxd6 scores 71% for Black, A5.1b 8.Nxd4 cxd4 9.Ne2 0-0 10.c3 a6 11.Bd3 Nc6 scores 64% for Black, and A5.1c 8.d3 a6 9.Bc4 d5 10.Ba2 0-0 scores 70% for Black.
B) 5.Bc4 (7,264 games)
After 5...e6 the line splits.
B1 6.0-0 Nge7, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 7.d3 d5!?, when B1.1a 8.Bb3 0-0 9.Qe1 Na5!? 10.Bd2 b6 scores 80% for Black, and B1.1b 8.Bb5 0-0 9.Bxc6!? Nxc6 10.Qe1 a6!? scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.2 7.Qe1 0-0 8.d3 Nd4 9.Nxd4 Bxd4+!? scores 68% for Black.
B1.3 7.e5 d6 8.exd6 Qxd6, when B1.3a 9.Ne4 Qc7 10.d3 0-0 scores 92% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.3b 9.d3 0-0 10.Ne4 Qc7 is a transposition to B1.3a.
B1.4 7.f5!? d5, when B1.4a 8.exd5?! exd5 9.Bb5 Bxf5 scores 92% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B1.4b 8.Bb5 dxe4 9.f6!? Bxf6 10.Nxe4 Bg7 scores 72% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B1.4c 8.fxe6?! dxc4 9.exf7+ reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 75% with both 9...Kxf7 and 9...Kf8, albeit from small samples, and B1.4d 8.fxg6 hxg6 scores 69% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 6.f5!? gxf5!?, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 7.d3 Nge7 8.0-0 0-0 9.Qe1 fxe4 10.dxe4 d5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
B2.2 7.exf5 d5 8.Bb5 e5 scores 81% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B3 6.d3 Nge7, after which the line splits again.
B3.1 7.0-0 is a transposition to B1.1.
B3.2 7.e5 0-0 scores 86% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C) 5.g3 (1,065 games)
After 5...d6 6.Bg2 Rb8!? the line splits.
C1 7.0-0 e6 8.d3 Nge7 9.Be3 Nd4, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 10.Qd2 0-0, when C1.1a 11.Nd1 b5 12.c3 Nxf3+ 13.Bxf3 b4 14.d4 bxc3 15.bxc3 Ba6 scores 79% for Black, C1.1b 11.Rae1 b6 scores 68% for Black, C1.1c 11.Rab1 b6 12.Ne2 Nxf3+ 13.Bxf3 d5 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C1.1d 11.Nh4 b6 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C1.2 10.e5 Nef5 11.Bf2 h5!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C2 7.a4 a6 8.0-0 b5 9.axb5 axb5 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
No comments:
Post a Comment