Beat The ... Grand Prix Attack (part three)

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

Here I will cover the lines of the Grand Prix Attack against the Sicilian Defence that start with 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 d6 3.f4.

Black's commonest response is 3...Nc6, but that only scores 43%, while the second-most popular move, 3...g6, scores 50%.

Position after 3...g6

After 4.Nf3 Bg7 White has two popular continuations.

A) 5.Bc4 (1,990 games)

After 5...Nc6 the line splits.

A1 6.0-0 Nf6 7.d3 0-0 (7...Bg4 scores equally well, but Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 prefer castling), after which the line splits again.

A1.1 8.Qe1 e6, when A1.1a 9.f5 d5 10.Bb3 c4!? 11.dxc4 dxe4 12. Nxe4 Nxe4 12.Qxe4 exf5 scores 78% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 9.Qh4 d5 10.Bb3 c4!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A1.2 8.a3 Bd7 scores 55% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A1.3 8.f5!? gxf5 9.Qe1 fxe4 10.dxe4 Be6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2 6.d3 e6, after which the line splits again.

A2.1 7.0-0 Nge7 8.Qe1 h6!? 9.Bb3 a6 10.a4 Rb8 scores 73% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2.2 7.f5!? exf5 8.0-0 h6!? 9.Qe1 Nge7, when A2.2a 10.Qg3 g5 scores 90% for Black, albeit from a small sample, A2.2b 10.exf5 Bxf5 scores 74% for Black, and A2.2c 10.Qh4 Be6 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B) 5.Bb5+ (1,385 games)

After 5...Bd7 the line splits.

B1 6.Bc4 Nc6, after which the line splits again.

B1.1 7.0-0 Na5 8.Be2 Nf6, when B1.1a 9.d3 0-0 10.Qe1 Nc6 11.Qh4 Nd4 12.Bd1 Bg4 scores 56% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.1.b 9.Qe1 Nc6 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B1.2 7.d3 Na5, when B1.2a 8.Bd2 a6!? scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B1.2b 8.Bb3 b5 9.Bd5 Rb8 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B2 6.Bxd7+ Qxd7, after which the line splits again.

B2.1 7.0-0 Nc6 8.0-0 Nh6!?, when B2.1a 9.Qe1 f5 scores 79% for Black, albeit from a small sample. B2.1b 9.h3 f5 scores 89% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B2.1c 9.Kh1 f5 scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B2.2 7.d3 e6!? 8.0-0 Ne7 9.Qe1 0-0 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B3 6.a4!? e6!? 7.0-0 Ne7 scores 85% for Black, albeit from a small sample.