HERE is a piece I wrote but did not post during the covid panic.
IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The Colle System usually starts 1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 d5 3.e3!? or 1.d4 d5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.e3!?
Black's most-popular reply, 3...e6, scores 45%, but best, at least statistically, is 3...c5!?, which scores an excellent 58%.
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| Position after 3...c5!? |
A) 4.c3 (1,805 games)
After 4...Qc7 the line splits.
A1 5.Bd3 Nc6!?, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6.Nbd2 Bg4 7.h3 Bh5 scores 55% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6.0-0 e5!? 7.dxe5 Nxe5 8.Nxe5 Qxe5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5.Nbd2 Nbd7, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6.Bd3 e5, when A2.1a 7.dxe5 Nxe5 8.Nxe5 Qxe5 9.Nf3 Qh5!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 7.e4!? exd4 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample size.
B) 4.b3 (1,304 games)
After 4...cxd4!? 5.exd4 Nc6 the line splits.
B1 6.Bb2 g6!?, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 7.Be2 Bg7 8.0-0 0-0, when B1.1a 9.Nbd2 Bf5 10.a3 Rc8 11.Rc1 Ne4 scores 90% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B1.1b 9.c4 Bf5 10.Nc3 Rc8 scores 76% for Black, and B1.1c 9.Ne5 Ne4 10.Nd2 Nd6!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
B1.2 7.Bd3 Bg7 8.0-0 0-0, when B1.2a 9.a3 Ne4 10.Nbd2 Bf5 11.Re1 Nd6 scores 93% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B1.2b 9.Nbd2 Nb4 10.Be2 Bf5 11.Ne1 Rc8 12.c3 Nc6 scores 75% for Black, and B1.2c 9.Re1 Bg4 scores 86% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.3 7.Nbd2 Bg7 8.a3 0-0 9.Bd3 Nh5!?, when B1.3a 10.g3 reaches a position in Mega21 in which Black scores 72% with both 10...Qb6 and 10...Bg4, albeit from small samples, and B1.3b 10.0-0 Nf4 11.Bb5 Qb6 12.Bxc6 bxc6 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 6.Bd3 Bg4 7.Bb2 Qa5+, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 8.Bc3 Qb6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
B2.2 8.Nbd2 Ne4 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C) 4.c4 (1,128 games)
After 4...cxd4 the line splits.
C1 5.exd4 g6!? 6.Nc3 Bg7, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 7.cxd5 Nxd5, when C1.1a 8.Bc4 Nxc3 9.bxc3 Qc7 10.Qb3 0-0 scores 76% for Black, C1.1b 8.Qb3 Nxc3 9.bxc3 0-0 10.Be2 Qc7 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.1c 8.Bb5+ Bd7 9.Qb3 Nxc3 10.bxc3 0-0 scores 62% for Black, and C1.1d 8.Be2 0-0 9.0-0 Nc6 10.Qb3 Be6!? 11.Qxb7 Nxd4 12.Nxd4 Bxd4 13.Rd1 Rb8 scores 90% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C1.2 7.Be2 Nc6!? 8.0-0 0-0, when C1.2a 9.h3 dxc4 10.Bxc4 Na5 (10...b6 scores equally well, but the knight move is preferred by the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1) 11.Be2 Be6 scores 70% for Black, C1.2b 9.Re1 Bf5!? 10.Bg5 Ne4 scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.2c 9.Be3 b6!? 10.Ne5 Bb7 11.Bf3 Na5!? scores 69% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.2d 9.Bg5 dxc4!? 10.Bxc4 Bg4 11.d5 Bxf3 12.Qxf3 Ne5 13.Qe2 Nxc4 14.Qxc4 Rc8 scores 93% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.2e 9.Ne5 Be6 (9...dxc4 scores equally well, but the bishop move is preferred by engines) 10.Nxc6 bxc6 11.c5!? Rb8 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, C1.2f 9.Bf4 b6!? 10.Ne5 Bb7 11.Bf3 e6 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C1.2g 9.c5!? Bg4 10.h3 Bxf3 11.Bxf3 e6 scores 79% for Black.
C1.3 7.Bg5 Nbd7!?, when C1.3a 8.cxd5 0-0!? scores 58% for Black, and C1.3b 8.c5!? Ne4 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
C1.4 7.Qb3 dxc4!? 8.Bxc4 0-0, when C1.4a 9.Ne5!? e6 10.Be3 Nc6!? 11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.0-0 Ng4!? scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample, and C1.4b 9.0-0 Nc6 10.Ne5!? Qxd4!? 11.Bxf7+ Kh8 12.Nxc6 bxc6 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C2 5.Nxd4 e5, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 6.Nf3 Nc6 7.cxd5 Nxd5 scores 84% for Black.
C2.2 6.Nb3 Nc6 7.cxd5 Nxd5 scores 86% for Black.
D) 4.dxc5 (502 games)
After 4...e6 the line splits.
D1 5.c4 Bxc5. after which the line splits again.
D1.1 6.a3 0-0 7.b4 Bd6 (7...Bb6 scores equally well, but the retreat to d6 is much preferred by engines) 8.Bb2 a5 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
D1.2 6.Nc3 0-0, when D1.2a 7.cxd5 exd5 8.Be2 Nc6 9.0-0 Re8 scores 62% for Black, D1.2b 7.a3 Nc6 8.b4 Bd6 9.Bb2 a6!? scores 68% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and D1.2c 7.Be2 Nc6 8.0-0 dxc4 9.Bxc4 a6 scores 76% for Black.
D2 5.a3 a5!? scores 60% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
D3 5.b4 b6!? scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
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