He spent about 24 minutes thinking before coming up with 4.d4?, and Black was already better after 4...dxe4?!, although almost certainly stronger is 4...exd4.
Either way, ALH's choice was a mistake, confirming a rule expounded by grandmaster John Nunn in Secrets Of Practical Chess (Gambit 1998).
Nunn wrote (emphasis added): "When analysing a given position, it is fair to say that one almost always sees more in the first five minutes than in the next five minutes.
"The five minutes after that is even less productive, and so on. I have observed that if a player spends more than 20 minutes over a move, the result is almost always a mistake.
"The normal decision-making process should not take longer than this, even in fairly complex situations."
Nunn points out there will be exceptions to his rule, and it is reasonable to suppose the chances of coming up with a bad move increase dramatically in a position requiring a lot of thinking time.
Nevertheless I believe Nunn's 20-minute rule is well worth remembering. Indeed I am always a little surprised when an opponent breaks the rule and does not come up with an error.
So what can be done about this thinking mistake?
Nunn stated: "If you have thought about a position for some time and are still unsure what to play, it is essential to be ruthlessly pragmatic.
"Suppose your lengthy cogitation is the result of indecision; for example, say there are two moves, both of which have roughly equal merit.
"If you have not been able to decide between them up to now, it is reasonable to suppose that there is in fact little to choose between them.
"Considerable further thought might eventually reveal some difference, but it is rare that this expenditure of time is worthwhile.
"First of all, it is easy to be wrong when dealing with such fine distinctions and secondly, gaining an infinitesimal advantage is of little value if the result is that you run into time-trouble and blunder away a piece."
He added: "My advice is to obey your instinctive feeling as to which of the two moves is better or, if you don't have any preference, just choose at random.
"I have occasionally been tempted to toss a coin at the board, but despite the undoubted psychological impact on the opponent, this does seem rather unsporting."
No comments:
Post a Comment