IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
Alekhine's Defence: 1.e4 Nf6 is out of favour among the elite but still has dedicated followers at club level.
After 2.e5 (other moves, including 2.Nc3, 2.d3 and 2.Bc4?!, score much less well) Nd5 3.d4 d6, White's most-popular move, 4.Nf3, scores 57%, comfortably beating the 54% of 4.c4.
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| Position after 4.Nf3 |
A) 4...Bg4 (11,085 games)
After 5.Be2 the line splits.
A1 5...e6 6.h3, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6...Bh5 7.c4 Nb6 8.exd6 cxd6 (not 8...Bxd6?? 9.c5) 9.Nc3 Be7 10.Be3 scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6...Bxf3 7.Bxf3, when A1.2a 7...dxe5 8.c4 Nb6 9.Bxb7 scores 69% for White, albeit from a small sample, A1.2b 7...Nc6 8.c4 Nb6 9.exd6 cxd6 reaches a position in which White has scored 42% with the defensive 10.b3 but 63% with 10.d5, 75% with 10.0-0 and 100% with 10.Nc3, but the four moves between them involve just 13 games, and A1.2c 7...c6 8.exd6 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 5...c6 6.c4 Nb6 7.Ng5!?, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 7...Bxe2 8.Qxe2, when A2.1a 8...dxe5 9.dxe5 scores 80% for White and A2.1b 8...h6 9.Nf3 dxe5 10.dxe5 e6 11.0-0 Nbd7 12.Nc3 scores 62% for White.
A2.2 7...Bf5 8.g4!? scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3 5...Nc6 6.e6!?, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 6...fxe6 7.Ng5 Bxe2 8.Qxe2 Nxd4 9.Qd1 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3.2 6...Bxe6? 7.c4 scores 83% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
A4 5...g6 6.Ng5!?, after which the line splits again.
A4.1 6...Bxe2 7.Qxe2, when A4.1a 7...e6 8.c4 Nb6 9.Qf3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A4.1b 7...dxe5? 8.Qf3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
A4.2 6...Bf5 7.e6!? Bxe6 8.Nxe6 fxe6 9.Bg4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
B) 4...g6 (5,754 games)
After 5.Bc4!?, which scores 60%, easily beating the 46% of 5.c4, the line splits.
B1 5...Nb6 6.Bb3 Bg7 7.Qe2!?, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 7...0-0 8.h3 Nc6 9.0-0, when B1.1a 9...Na5 10.Nc3 Nxb3 11.axb3 scores 67% for White and B1.1b 9...dxe5 10.dxe5 Nd4 11.Nxd4 Qxd4 12.Re1 scores 81% for White.
B1.2 7...Nc6 8.0-0, when B1.2a 8...0-0 9.h3 is a transposition to B1.1, and B1.2b 8...dxe5 9.dxe5 Nd4 10.Nxd4 Qxd4, when both 11.Re1 and 11.e6!? score 64% - both from the same number of games - but the rook move is preferred by the analysis engines Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1.
B2 5...c6 6.Nc3!? Nxc3 7.bxc3, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 7...d5 8.Bd3!?, when B2.1a 8...Bg7 9.0-0 scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample, and B2.1b 8...Bg4 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2.2 7...Bg7 8.Ng5 0-0 9.Qf3 d5 10.Bd3 scores 67% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
C) 4...dxe5 (4,972 games)
After 5.Nxe5 the line splits.
C1 5...c6 6.Be2!?, after which the line splits again.
C1.1 6...Bf5 7.g4!? Be6 8.c4 scores 68% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C1.2 6...Nd7 7.Nf3!?, when C1.2a 7...g6 8.c4 Nc7 9.Nc3 Bg7 10.0-0 0-0 11.Bg5!? scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C1.2b 7...N7f6 8.0-0 Bg4 9.Ne5 Bxe2 10.Qxe2 scores 89% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C1.3 6...g6 7.0-0 Bg7 8.c4 Nc7 9.f4 0-0 10.Nc3 scores 81% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2 5...g6 6.c4, after which the line splits again.
C2.1 6...Nb6 7.c5!? Nd5 8.Bc4 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C2.2 6...Nf6 7.Be2!? Bg7 8.Nc3 0-0 9.Bf4 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
C3 5...Nd7!? 6.Nf3!? (this scores 69% - the engines much prefer 6.Nxf7!?, but that scores 55%), after which the line splits again.
C3.1 6...e6 7.g3!?, when C3.1a 7...c5 8.Bg2 scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample, and C3.1b 7...Be7 8.Bg2 also scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample.
C3.2 6...g6 7.Bc4, when C3.2a 7...c6 8.0-0 Bg7 9.Re1 0-0 10.Bg5 scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample, C3.2b 7...N7f6 8.0-0 Bg7 9.Bg5 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and C3.2c 7...N7b6 8.Bb3 Bg7 scores 100% for White with both 9.0-0 and 9.h3, albeit from very small samples.
D) 4...Nc6 (1,401 games)
After 5.c4 Nb6 6.e6!? fxe6 7.Nc3 the line splits.
D1 7...g6 8.h4!? Bg7 9.Be3!?, after which the line splits again.
D1.1 9...e5 10.d5 Nd4 11.Nxd4 exd4 12.Bxd4 Bxd4 13.Qxd4 scores 62% for White.
D1.2 9...0-0 10.h5 e5 11.hxg6 scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
D2 7...e5 8.d5 Nd4 9.Nxd4 exd4 10.Qxd4 e5 11.dxe6 Bxe6 12.Be3 scores 83% for White.
E) 4...Nb6!? (1,248 games)
After 5.a4 a5 6.Nc3 the line splits.
E1 6...g6 7.h4!? scores 80% for White, albeit from a small sample.
E2 6...Bg4 7.Be2 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
E3 6...dxe5 7.Nxe5 scores 68% for White.
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