Beat The ... Tarrasch

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Tarrasch Variaton of the Queen's Gambit: 1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c5 is intermittently popular among the elite but always has a dedicated following at club level.

One of its attractions is that Black hopes to avoid defending a long grind, as is often the case in the Exchange Variation of the Queen's Gambit Declined.

White's best response, statistically, is the traditional favourite 4.cxd5, which scores 57%.

Position after 4.cxd5

Black has two major replies.

A) 4...exd5 (8,653 games)

After 5.Nf3 the line splits.

A1 5...Nc6 6.dxc5!? after this surprising capture, which has been played by Magnus Carlsen and is also the choice of Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 (it scores 64%, easily beating the 59% of the well-known 6.g3), the line splits again.

A1.1 6...d4 7.Na4 Bxc5!? 8.Nxc5 Qa5+ 9.Bd2 Qxc5 10.b4!?, when A1.1a 10...Nxb4 11.Rc1 Qd6 12.e3 scores 71% for White and A1.1b 10...Qb6 11.Qa4 scores 72% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A1.2 6...Nf6 7.Be3!? scores 89% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A1.3 6...Bxc5 7.Nxd5!? scores 90% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A2 5...Nf6 6.Bg5!? after this slightly surprising move, which has been played by Karpov and scores 69%, ahead of the 67% of 6.g3, the line splits again.

A2.1 6...Be6 7.e4!?, when A2.1a 7...dxe4 8.Bb5+ scores 100% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 7...Be7 8.e5 scores 67% for White, albeit from a very small sample.

A2.2 6...Be7 7.dxc5, when A2.2a 7...Be6 8.e3 0-0 9.Rc1 scores 93% for White, albeit from a small sample, A2.2b 7...0-0 8.e3 Be6 is a transposition to A2.2a, and A2.2c 7...Nc6 8.e3 scores 74% for White.

A2.3 6...cxd4 7.Nxd4, when A2.3a 7...Be7 8.e3 0-0 9.Bd3 Nc6 reaches a position in which White scores 75% with both 10.0-0 and 10.Nxc6, albeit from small samples, and A2.3b 7...Nc6 8.e3 Be7 9.Be2 0-0 10.0-0 Be6 11.Rc1 Rc8 12.Nxc6 scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A2.4 6...Nc6!? 7.Bxf6, when A2.4a 7...gxf6 8.g3!? scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.4b 7...Qxf6!? 8.Nxd5 Qd8 9.e4 scores 60% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A3 5...Be6 6.e3!?, after which the line splits again.

A3.1 6...Nf6 7.Bb5+ scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.

A3.2 6...Nc6 7.Be2 scores 75% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B) 4...cxd4 (3,538 games)

After 5.Qa4+ Bd7 6.Qxd4 exd5 7.Qxd5 the line splits.

B1 7...Nc6 8.e3!? Nf6 9.Qd1 Bc5 10.Nf3 Qe7 11.Be2 0-0-0 12.0-0 g5 13.Qc2 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B2 7...Nf6 8.Qb3 Nc6 9.Nf3, after which the line splits again.

B2.1 9...Bc5 10.Bg5, when B2.1a 10...h6 reaches a position in which in which White scores 100% with both 11.Bh4 and 11.Bf4, albeit from very small samples, and B2.1b 10...Qa5?! 11.e3 scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.