IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.
The New London: 1.d4 d5 2.Bf4 (I will deal with 1.d4 Nf6 2.Bf4 in a separate post) is an attempt to improve on, or at least vary from, the traditional London: 1.d4 d5 2.Nf3 and 3.Bf4/1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 and 3.Bf4.
Black usually replies 2...Nf6 but only scores 46%, doing considerably better with 2...c5, which scores an excellent 53%.
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| Position after 2...c5 |
A) 3.e3 (2,662 games)
After 3...cxd4 4.exd4 Nc6 the line splits.
A1 5.c3 Bf5, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6.Nf3 e6, when A1.1a 7.Qb3 Qd7 8.Nbd2 f6!? 9.Be2 g5 10.Bg3 h5 scores 53% for Black; A1.1b 7.Nbd2 Bd6 with another major split: A1.1b1 8.Bxd6 Qxd6 scores 60% for Black and A1.1b2 8.Bg3 Nf6 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample; A1.1c 7.Bd3 Bxd3 8.Qxd3 Nf6 with another major split: A1.1c1 9.Nbd2 Bd6 10.Bxd6 Qxd6 scores 74% for Black and A1.1c2 9.0-0 Be7!? scores 71% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A1.2 6.Nd2 e6, when A1.2a 7.Ngf3 is a transposition to A1.1b, and A1.2b 7.Qb3 Qd7 8.Ngf3 is a transposition to A1.1a.
A1.3 6.Qb3 Qd7 7.Nf3 e6 is a transposition to A1.1a.
A1.4 6.Bd3 Bxd3 7.Qxd3 Nf6 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2. 5.Nf3 Bg4, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 6.c3 Nf6, when A2.1a 7.Nbd2 e6 8.Qb3 Qc8!? 9.Bd3 Be7 10.0-0 Bh5!? 11.Ne5 Nxe5 12.Bxe5 0-0 scores 58% for Black and A2.1b 7.Qb3 Na5 8.Qa4+ Bd7 9.Qc2 Rc8 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
A2.2 6.Be2 e6, when A2.2a 7.0-0 Bxf3!? 8.Bxf3 Qb6 scores 57% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A2.2b 7.c3 Nf6 8.Nbd2 Be7!? 9.0-0 0-0 scores 70% for Black.
A3 5.Nc3 Bf5, after which the line splits again.
A3.1 6.Nf3 Nf6, when A3.1a 7.Bb5 a6 scores 74% for Black and A3.1b 7.Bd3 Bxd3 8.Qxd3 e6 9.0-0 Be7!? scores 50% for Black.
A3.2 6.Bd3 Bxd3 7.Qxd3 e6 8.Nf3 Nf6 is a transposition to A3.1b.
B) 3.c3 (428 games)
After 3...Nc6 the line splits.
B1 4.e3 Bf5, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 5.Nd2 cxd4 6.exd4 (there are no games in Mega21 with 6.cxd4!?) Nf6, when B1.1a 7.Ngf3 e6 8.Qb3 Bd6!? 9.Qxb7 Bxf4 10.Qxc6+ Kf8!? scores 65% for Black and B1.1b 7.Qb3 Qd7!? 8.Ngf3 a6 scores 57% for Black.
B1.2 5.Qb3 Qb6!? scores 71% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.3 5.Bd3 Bxd3 6.Qxd3 Nf6 scores 92% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B1.4 5.Nf3 Qb6!? scores 74% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2 4.Nf3 cxd4!? 5.cxd4 Qb6!?, after which the line splits again.
B2.1 6.Qd2 Nf6 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B2.2 6.Nc3 Nf6 7.Na4 Qa5+ 8.Bd2 Qd8 9.e3 e6, when B2.2a 10.Rc1 Bd6 11.Bb5 Bd7 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample, B2.2b 10.Bd3 Bd6 11.0-0 0-0 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and B2.2c 10.Bb5 Bd7 11.0-0 Bd6 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.
B3 4.dxc5?! (not a popular move, but included for completeness) e5 5.Bg3 Bxc5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.
C) 3.e4!? (135 games)
After 3...Nc6!? the line splits.
C1 4.exd5 Qxd5 5.Nc3 Qxd4 6.Nd5 e5 7.Nc7+ Kd8 8.Nxa8 exf4 Black scores 75%, albeit from a small sample.
C2 4.Nc3 cxd4 5.exd5 (5,Nxd5 e5) dxc3 6.dxc6 Qxd1+ 7.Rxd1 bxc6 Black scores 59%, albeit from a small sample.
D) 3.dxc5 (86 games)
After 3...e6!?, which scores 72% , White has tried seven different moves. The two most-popular, but each appearing just four times, are 4.c3 and 4.Nc3. In both cases Black can reply 4...Bxc5 with at least equality.
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