Beat The ... New London (part two)

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

After 1.d4 Nf6 2.Bf4 Black has five moves each that appears more than 3,000 times in Mega21.

The most successful, statistically, is 2...c5!?, which scores 60%.

Position after 2...c5!?

White has four popular replies.

A) 3.e3 (2,207 games)

After 3...Nd5!? the line splits.

A1 4.Bg3 Qb6, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 5.b3 cxd4 when A1.1a 6.exd4 Nc6 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and A1.1b 6.Qxd4 Qxd4 scores 71% for Black, albeit from a small sample (the moves 6...Nb4, 6...e6 and 6...Qa5+ each scores 100% for Black, but each occurs just twice in Mega21).

A1.2 5.Nc3 Nxc3 6.bxc3 e6 scores 94% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2 4.Bxb8 Rxb8, after which the line splits again.

A2.1 5.c4 Qa5+ scores 75% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2.2 5.c3 reaches a position with just a small number of games - Black scores 75% with 5...e6 and 5...Qb6.

A2.3 5.dxc5 e6 scores 67% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

B) 3.d5 (572 games)

After 3...g6!? the line splits.

B1 4.Nc3 Bg7 5.e4 0-0 scores 71% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B2 4.c4 d6 5.Nc3 Bg7 6.e4 0-0, after which the line splits again.

B2.1 7.Be2 reaches a position in which Black scores 56% with 7...e6 and 7...Qa5, but with each move there are just nine examples in Mega21.

B2.2 7.Nf3 Qa5!? scores 58% for Black.

C) 3.c3 (505 games)

After 3...Qb6 the line splits.

C1 4.Qb3 Nc6 5.e3 d5, after which the line splits again.

C1.1 6.Nd2 c4, when C1.1a 7.Qc2 e6 8.Nf3 Be7 9.Be2 0-0 10.0-0 Bd7 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C1.1b 7.Qxb6 axb6 8.a3 b5 9.Rc1 Bf5 scores 63% for Black.

C1.2 6.Qxb6 axb6 7.Bc7!? Bf5 8.Bxb6 cxd4 scores 50% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C2 4.Qc2 Nc6!? 5.e3 d5, after which the line splits again.

C2.1 6.Nd2 cxd4!? 7.exd4 Bg4 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C2.2 6.Nf3 Bg4 7.Nbd2 e6, when C2.2a 8.h3 Bf5 9.Qb3 c4 10.Qxb6 axb6 scores 81% for Black, C2.2b 8.Bd3 Be7!? scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample, and C2.2c 8.Be2 Bf5 scores 83% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

C3 4.b3 has only been played 16 times in Mega21. Black scores 79% from seven games with 4...e6 but the engines much prefer 4...cxd4!?, which scores 75% from four games.

D) 3.dxc5 (237 games)

After 3...e6!?, which scores 69%, White has tried six moves in Mega21, but none more than five times.