Beat The ... Panov Attack

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Caro-Kann was once thought to be practically refuted by the Panov Attack: 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 cxd5 4.c4, and this system, aka the Panov-Botvinnik Attack, is still popular, especially at club level.

Easily the most-popular reply, 4...Nf6, is also the most successful statistically, scoring 46%, and after 5.Nc3 we reach a position with almost 35,000 games in Mega21.

Here Black's commonest continuations are 5...e6, which scores 44%, 5...Nc6, which scores 47%, and 5...g6, which scores 49%.

But all those moves are eclipsed, at least statistically by Evgeny Agrest's speciality 5...Be6!?, which scores 53%.

Position after 5...Be6!?

This move surprises many whites, which partly explains why no reply has become dominant. I will look at the six most-frequent continuations, although none is especially popular.

A) 6.c5 (100 games)

After 6...g6 the line splits.

A1 7.Nf3 Bg7, after which the line splits again.

A1.1 8.Bb5+ Bd7!? scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A1.2 8.Bd3 0-0 9.0-0 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

A2 7.Qb3 Qc8 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

B) 6.Nge2 (54 games)

After 6...dxc4 7.Nf4 Bg4 8.f3 Bd7 9.Bxc4 e6 the line splits.

B1 10.d5 e5 11.Nd3 Bd6 scores 50% for Black.

B2 10.0-0 Bd6 scores 60% for Black.

C) 6.Nf3 (32 games)

After 6...dxc4 the line splits.

C1 7.Ne5 Nc6 8.Nxc6 bxc6 9.Qa4 Qd7 10.Bxc4 Bxc4 11.Qxc4 e6, after which the line splits again.

C1.1 12.0-0 Bd6 scores 70% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C1.2 12.Bf4 Be7 13.0-0 0-0 14.Rac1 Rac8 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

C2 7.Bg5 Nd5 8.Qa4 Nc6 9.Ne5?! (played in eight of the 14 games to reach this position - Stockfish13 and Komodo12.1.1 give 9.Qxc4, but much prefer Black) Nxc3 10.bxc3 Qa5 11.Qxa5 Nxa5 scores 92% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C3 7.Ng5 Bd5, after which the line splits again.

C3.1 8.Nxd5 Qxd5 9.Be2 e6 10.0-0 Nc6 scores 87% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C3.2 8.Qa4 Nc6 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C4 7.Qa4+ Nc6 8.Bxc4 Bxc4 9.Qxc4 e6 10.0-0 Be7 scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C5 7.Be2 Nc6 8.0-0 g6 scores 80% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

C6 7.Bxc4?? (there are six games with this blunder in Mega21) Bxc4 8.Qa4+ b5 scores 100% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

D) 6.cxd5 (29 games)

After 6...Bxd5!? the line splits.

D1 7.Nf3 Nc6, after which the line splits again.

D1.1 8.Be2 e6 9.0-0 Be7 10.Ne5 0-0 scores 62% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

D1.2 8.Nxd5, when Black scores 83% with both 8...Nxd5 and 8.Qxd5, albeit from small samples.

D1.3 8.Bb5 e6 scores 64% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

D1.4 8.Be3 e6 9.Be2 Be7 10.0-0 0-0 scores 90% for Black, albeit from a small sample.

D2 7.Nxd5 Nxd5 scores 75% for Black, albeit from a very small sample.

E) 6.Bg5 (27 games)

After 6...dxc4 7.Bxf6!? exf6 8.d5 Bf5 9.Bxc4 Bd6 Black scores 75%, albeit from a small sample.

F) 6.Qb3 (18 games)

After 6...Nc6 Black scores 61%, albeit from a small sample (note that 7.Qxb7?! Nxd4 is good for Black).