Wednesday 5 May 2021

Beat The ... English English

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.
The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The English Defence to the English Opening: 1.c4 b6 is a favourite with players who hope to get opponents out of their comfort zone as soon as possible.
White's most-popular response by far is 2.Nc3, but that scores only 50%, significantly behind the 53% of 2.d4.
Position after 2.d4
Black has two main continuations.

A) 2...Bb7 (2,149 games)
After 3.d5!? e6 4.a3 the line splits.
A1 4...f5 5.Nf3 Nf6 6.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
A1.1 6...Be7 7.Bf4!? scores 75% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
A1.2 6...Bd6 7.Nd4!? scores 73% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A1.3 6...Na6 7.b4, after which A1.3a 7...Bd6 8.e3 scores 67% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and A1.3b 7...g6 8.Bb2 scores 78% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2 4...Nf6 5.Nc3, after which the line splits again.
A2.1 5...exd5 6.cxd5, when A2.1a 6...Bd6 7.g3 0-0 8.Bg2 scores 63% for White, albeit from a small sample, and A2.1b 6...g6 7.e4!? scores 70% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2.2 5...Bd6 6.e4!? scores 56% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A2.3 5...Be7 6.e4 d6 7.g3!? scores 100% for White, albeit from a very small sample.
A2.4 5...d6 6.g3!? scores 83% for White, albeit from a small sample.
A3 4...Qh4!? 5.Nc3!? scores 79% for White, albeit from a small sample.

B) 2...e6 (1,271 games)
After 3.a3!? Bb7 4.Nc3 the line splits.
B1 4...f5 5.d5 Nf6 6.g3, after which the line splits again.
B1.1 6...Na6 7.Bg2 Nc5 8.Nh3 Bd6 9.Nb5!? scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B1.2 6...Bd6 7.Bg2, when B1.2a 7...0-0 8.Nf3 Na6 9.Nd4!? scores 75% for White, albeit from a very small sample, and B1.2b 7...Be5!? 8.Bd2 0-0 9.Nh3 scores 88% for White, albeit from a small sample.
B2 4...Nf6 5.d5 transposes to A2.
B3 4...g6!? 5.e4 Bg7 6.Be3 Ne7 7.Qd2 scores 67% for White, albeit from a small sample.

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