Beat The ... French Winawer

IN this series I am looking at the statistically best way to play against popular opening lines.

The numbers are drawn from the 2021 edition of ChessBase's Mega database, ignoring, where possible, those results that include very few games and so are statistically insignificant.

The Winawer Variation of the French Defence: 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Bb4 is very popular, especially at club level.

White's most-popular reply is 4.e5, which scores 56%. However the lesser-known, but increasingly popular, 4.Qd3 scores 58%.

Position after 4.Qd3

Black has three main replies.

A) 4...dxe4 (541 games)

After 5.Qxe4 Nf6 6.Qh4 the line splits.

A1 6...c5 7.dxc5 Bxc3+ 8.bxc3 Qa5 9.Qb4 scores 60% for White.

A2 6...Nc6 7.Nf3 Nd5 8.Bg5 scores 64% for White.

B) 4...Ne7 (180 games)

5.Ne2 0-0 6.a3 only occurs eight times in Mega21 but scores 63% for White.

C) 4...Nf6 (66 games)

This line is more important than the number of times 4...Nf6 has been played as the position can also arise from the move-order 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Qd3 Bb4, although in that move-order Black would more-normally play 4...dxe4.

After 5.e5 the line splits.

C1 5...Ne4 6.a3 Bxc3+ 7.bxc3 scores 62% for White.

C2 5...Nfd7 6.Qg3 scores 70% for White.

The 4.Qd3 system is relatively new - only two games in Mega21 pre-date 1985 - and could easily catch an opponent unprepared.

There is little established theory and the main ideas seem less complicated than those of more-mainline Winawers.